特大以上城市人口集聚和经济增长的变动趋势与脱钩分析

Analysis on the Change Trend and Decoupling of Population Agglomeration and Economic Growth in Megacities and above

人口集聚是城市发展的基础,城市发展则可能进一步加剧人口集聚。选取我国21个特大以上城市2011—2020年的面板数据,使用Tapio脱钩模型、泰尔指数分析这些城市人口集聚和经济增长的变动趋势与脱钩情况。结果发现:(1)研究期内,城市人口集聚与经济增长存在明显的空间异质性和显著的正相关关系,人口集聚对经济增长的长期影响存在调节效应,当城市常住人口达到超大城市规模时,人口集聚对经济增长具有显著的促进作用。(2)特大城市的人口集聚增幅明显大于超大城市,而超大城市的人均GDP增幅明显大于特大城市。(3)深圳、广州、西安等城市的人口集聚增幅明显,而重庆、北京、南京等城市的人均GDP增幅明显,从短期看具有较大的人口集聚滞后效应;长沙、深圳、郑州等城市的省内GDP比重远大于人口比重,从长期看具有较大的人口集聚增长潜力。(4)整体上,21个特大以上城市的脱钩状态良好,尤其是四大分区中的西部、中部和七大分区中的华北、华南、华中、西南的脱钩状态较好,具体包括北京、深圳、上海等14个城市。

Population agglomeration is the basis of urban development,urban development may further intensify population agglomeration.This paper selected the panel data of 21 megacities and above in China from 2011 to 2020,and used Tapio decoupling model and Theil index to analyze the changing trend and decoupling of population agglomeration and economic growth in these cities.The results showed that:(1)During the study period,there was obvious spatial heterogeneity and significant positive correlation between urban population agglomeration and economic growth.The long-term impact of population agglomeration on economic growth had a regulatory effect.When the urban permanent population reached the scale of a supercities,population agglomeration had a significant role in promoting economic growth.(2)The growth rate of population agglomeration in megacities was significantly greater than that in supercities,and the growth rate of per capita GDP in supercities was significantly greater than that in megacities.(3)The population agglomeration of Shenzhen,Guangzhou,Xi′an and other cities increased significantly,while the per capita GDP of Chongqing,Beijing,Nanjing and other cities increased significantly,which had a large lag effect of population agglomeration in the short term.The proportion of GDP in Changsha,Shenzhen,Zhengzhou and other cities in the province was far greater than the proportion of population,which had great potential for population agglomeration and growth in the long run.(4)On the whole,the decoupling status of 21 megacities and above was good,especially the decoupling status of the western and central parts of the four large divisions and the northern,southern,central and southwestern parts of the seven small divisions,including 14 cities such as Beijing,Shenzhen and Shanghai.