长三角地区旅游供需耦合协调的时空分异及影响因素

Spatial-temporal Differentiation and Influencing Factors of the Coupling Coordination of Tourism Supply and Demand in the Changjiang River Delta

长三角地区是我国旅游业发展的代表,其旅游供需研究对推动区域旅游高质量发展具有重要意义。以长三角41个城市为例,通过构建旅游供需评价指标体系,结合耦合协调模型、空间自相关和地理探测器分析了2009—2019年长三角旅游供需耦合协调的时空分异特征及影响因素。结果表明:(1)研究期内,长三角旅游供需水平整体呈微弱增长态势,旅游需求(0.179)较稳定地低于旅游供给(0.251)。(2)研究期内,长三角地区旅游供需耦合协调水平在时间上与增幅具有一致性,即耦合协调水平高的城市增幅也大,在空间上呈“东南高、西北低”的分布格局。(3)研究期内,长三角地区旅游供需耦合协调的集聚态势稳定增加,且具有显著空间异质性,“高—高”和“低—高”集聚区位于东南沿海,“低—低”集聚区位于西北地区。(4)客源地系统所代表的旅游需求是长三角地区旅游供需耦合协调的重要影响因素,其影响力为0.890;核心吸引物的影响力虽然较低(0.686),但是极具发展潜力。

Changjiang River Delta is a representative of the tourism development in China,and its research on the tourism supply and demand is of great significance to promote the high-quality development of regional tourism.Took 41 cities in the Changjiang River Delta as a case,this paper analyzed the spatial-temporal differentiation and influencing factors of the coupling coordination of tourism supply and demand by constructing a tourism supply and demand evaluation index system and using a coupling coordination model,spatial autocorrelation and geographic detectors from 2009 to 2019.The results showed that:(1)During the study period,the overall level of tourism supply and demand in the Changjiang River Delta showed a weak growth trend,and the tourism demand(0.179)was stably lower than the tourism supply(0.251).(2)During the study period,the coupling coordination level of tourism supply and demand in the Changjiang River Delta was consistent with the increase in time,that was,cities with high coupling coordination level also had large increases,and the spatial distribution pattern was“high in the southeast and low in the northwest”.(3)During the study period,the agglomeration situation of the coupling coordination of tourism supply and demand in the Changjiang River Delta had increased steadily,and had significant spatial heterogeneity.The“H-H”and“L-H”agglomeration areas were located in the southeast coast,and the“L-L”agglomeration area was in the northwest region.(4)The tourism demand represented by the tourist source system was an important factor affecting the coupling coordination of tourism supply and demand in the Changjiang River Delta,its influence was 0.890.Although the influence of core attraction was low at 0.686,it had great potential for development.