新疆天山山区干旱灾害综合风险评估与区划

Comprehensive risk assessment and zoning of drought disasters in Tianshan Mountains,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

以自然灾害风险四因子理论为基础,综合考虑研究区自然及社会经济情况,建立适合天山山区干旱灾害风险概念框架和指标体系,结合GIS技术进行了该地区干旱灾害风险评估与区划。结果表明:致灾因子危险性较高的区域是伊犁河谷及天山北坡一带,东疆地区和南疆西部危险性较低;承灾体脆弱性较高的区域为伊犁河谷和博州地区,吐鲁番、哈密及克州属于低脆弱区;孕灾环境敏感性较高地区主要分布在天山北坡的精河至吐鲁番一线、阿克苏地区西部、巴州北部等地,伊犁河谷、巴州北部、哈密市北部、南疆西部山区属低敏感区;防灾减灾能力整体表现为中东部高于西部区域;新疆天山山区干旱综合风险整体呈现出中部高、两端低的趋势,即中部的天山南北两侧干旱风险高于南疆西部和东疆地区。构建的评估模型总体反映了研究区旱灾综合风险水平,可为新疆天山草原灾害风险管理、应对气候变化、抗旱减灾行动提供参考。

Based on the four-factor theory of natural disaster risk,this study considers the natural and social-economic situation of the study area,establishes a conceptual framework and index system suitable for drought disaster risk in Tianshan Mountains,and carries out drought disaster risk assessment and zoning in the area combined with GIS technology.The results show that the areas with higher hazard factors are the Yili river valley and the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains,while the eastern and western southern Xinjiang regions are less dangerous.The areas with high vulnerability to disaster-bearing bodies are the Yili river valley and Bole Prefecture,while Turpan,Hami,and Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture belong to low vulnerability areas.The areas with high sensitivity to the disaster-pregnancy environment are mainly distributed in the line from Jinghe to Turpan on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains,the western Aksu area,the northern Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture,and other places,Yili River valleys,northern Bazhou,northern Hami,and western mountainous areas in southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region are low-sensitive areas.The overall performance of disaster prevention and mitigation capacity is higher in the central and eastern regions than in the western regions.The overall drought risk in the Tianshan Mountains shows a trend of high in the middle and low at both ends.That is,the drought risk on the north and south sides of the Tianshan Mountains in the middle is higher than that in the western and eastern parts of southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.The constructed evaluation model generally reflects the comprehensive risk level of drought disasters in the study area,which can provide a basis for disaster risk management,climate change response and drought resistance,and disaster reduction actions in the Tianshan grasslands of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.