21世纪以来干旱研究的若干新进展与展望

New progress and prospect of drought research since the 21st century

干旱是中国影响范围最广、造成经济损失最严重的自然灾害之一,直接威胁国家粮食安全和社会经济发展,对干旱问题的认识和研究有助于提升国家防旱减灾能力。自新中国成立以来,中国对于干旱气象的研究取得了丰硕的成果。本文以21世纪以来中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室为平台开展的与干旱气象相关的科研项目群取得的研究成果为基础,通过成果检索,对干旱监测技术、干旱时空分布规律、干旱致灾特征、干旱灾害风险及其对气候变暖的响应以及干旱灾害风险管理与防御技术等方面的新进展进行总结和归纳。同时,基于干旱气象研究的前沿发展趋势,提出中国未来干旱气象研究应在加强气候变化背景下干旱高发区综合性干旱观测试验基础上,从不同维度和尺度定量研究干旱形成机理,构建多源数据融合和多方法结合的综合干旱监测新方法,揭示干旱致灾机理,科学评估干旱灾害风险,提出具有可执行性的风险管理策略等重点科学问题上取得突破。这对于推动中国干旱气象研究具有积极意义。

Drought is one of the natural disasters with the widest impact and the most serious economic losses in China,which directly threatens the country’s food security and socio-economic development.The understanding and research on drought will help to improve the national capacity of drought prevention and mitigation.Since 1949,China’s research on drought meteorology has achieved fruitful results.Based on the research results of the scientific research project group related to drought meteorology carried out by the Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration since the 21st century,through the achievement retrieval,this paper summarizes the new progress in drought monitoring technology,drought temporal and spa⁃tial distribution,drought disaster-causing characteristics,drought disaster risk and its response to climate warming,as well as drought disaster risk management and defense technology.At the same time,based on the frontier development trend of drought meteorology re⁃search,on the basis of strengthening the comprehensive drought observation test in drought prone areas under the background of cli⁃mate change,this paper puts forward that China’s drought meteorology research in future should study quantitatively the formation mechanism of drought from different dimensions and scales,build a new comprehensive drought monitoring method of multi-source data fusion and multi-method combination,reveal the mechanism of drought disaster-causing and evaluate scientifically the drought di⁃saster risk,putting forward the executable risk management strategies.This work is of positive significance to promoting drought meteo⁃rological research in China.