基于农作物养分平衡的畜禽粪污还田潜力预测-以安徽省为例

Potential and Prediction of Livestock and PoultryWaste Returning to Field based on Crop Nutrient Balance-A Case Study of Anhui Province

基于安徽省养殖业发展现状,在农作物养分需求与畜禽粪肥相平衡情况下对未来畜禽发展情况预测分析,对实现养分平衡、降低环境压力具有重要意义。文章评估了2010-2019年安徽省及16个地级市的畜禽粪污养分、氮磷化肥施用和作物养分需求的现状及差异关系,并进行养分综合管理情景分析。结果表明:基于农用地面积不变的条件下,养分实际投入量逐年降低,作物养分需求量逐年上升,在2030年后两者形成供需平衡状态,考虑到畜禽粪污处理过程的损耗率19.5%,此时粪污养分、化肥和作物养分需求分别为77.6、88.5、146.4万吨,与2019年相比,理论上化肥减施25.7万吨。种养分离,畜禽粪尿还田利用率均是制约畜禽养殖业发展的重要因素,同时是提高畜禽粪尿资源化利用的重要方向之一。

Based on the present situation of the development of animal husbandry in Anhui Province.Under the condition of balance between crop nutrient demand and livestock manure,the prediction and analysis of the future development of livestock and poultry was studied.It was of great significance for realizing nutrient balance and reducing environmental pressure.The present situation and different relationship of livestock and poultry waste,fertilizer application and crop nutrient demand in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2019 and 16 prefecture-level cities were evaluated.The scenario analysis of integrated nutrient management was carried out.Under the condition of constant agricultural land area,the results showed that the actual nutrient input decreased and the crop nutrient demand increased year by year.Considering the loss rate of 19.5%in the process of livestock and poultry waste treatment,the two formed a balance between supply and demand after 2030,the nutrient requirements of manure,chemical fertilizer and crops were 0.776,0.885 and 1.464 million tons,respectively.Compared with 2019,the application of chemical fertilizer was reduced by 0.257 million tons in theory.The separation of planting and breeding and the utilization rate of returning livestock and poultry waste to the field are both important factors restricting the development of livestock and poultry breeding industry.It was also one of vital directions to improve the utilization rate of livestock and poultry waste resources in the future.