陕西省防洪安全度现状评价研究

Evaluation of flood control safety in Shaanxi province

利用数量分析法与文献研究法,考虑到防洪的主要目标是保障生命和财产安全,因此选择社会、经济2类指标建立评价指标体系,对陕西省防洪安全度进行分析与评价。结果表明:陕西省防洪安全度平均值为67.74,总体处于基本安全状态;关中片区防洪安全度为91.53,处于安全状态,人口数量为2 448.3万人,占陕西省总人口的63.36%;陕南片区和陕北片区防洪安全度分别为63.21和61.04,处于基本安全状态,洪水风险处在基本可控范围。在陕西省3 864万人中,有2市处于基本安全区域,人口数量为571.2万人,占陕西省总人口的14.78%;有3市处于较不安全区域,人口数量为844.5万人,占陕西省总人口的21.86%。分析得出,陕西省防洪安全度区域不均,水平参差不齐,整体水平有待提升,防洪工作任务繁重。

Using the quantitative analysis method and literature research method,considering that the main goal of flood control is to guarantee the safety of life and property,two categories of social and economic indicators are selected to establish an evaluation index system to analyze and evaluate the safety degree of flood control in Shaanxi province. The results show that the average flood safety degree of Shaanxi province is 67.74,which is in the basic safety state;the flood safety degree of Guanzhong is 91.53,which is in the safe state,and the number of people in the safe area is 24.483 million,accounting for 63.36 % of the total population of Shaanxi province;the flood safety degree of Shaanxi South area and Shaanxi North area are 63.21 and 61.04 respectively,which are in the basic safety state The flood risk is in the basic controllable range. Among the 3.864 million people in Shaanxi province,there are 2 cities in the basic safety area with a population of 5.712 million people,accounting for 14.78 % of the total population of Shaanxi province;there are 3 cities in the less safe area with a population of 8.445 million people,accounting for 21.86 %of the total population of Shaanxi province. The analysis concluded that the regional unevenness of flood safety in Shaanxi province,the level varies,the overall level needs to be improved,and the task of flood prevention is heavy.