RCEP生效对中日货物贸易的影响研究

Research on the Influence of RCEP on Sino-Japanese Trade in Goods

中国和日本互为重要的贸易伙伴,双方贸易产品结构集中度较高,市场相互依存程度较高,贸易竞争性和互补性并存。《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)生效通过中日相互减让关税的贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应及贸易逆转效应、原产地区域累积规则的享惠门槛降低效应、海关程序和贸易便利化的贸易成本降低效应、服务贸易及投资协定的间接出口带动效应对中日货物贸易产生较大的影响。GTAP模型模拟评估结果表明,中日关税减让对两国的进出口规模均有促进且对日本的促进作用更强,两国的GDP和社会福利均会得到改善,但中国的贸易条件和贸易收支会出现恶化;两国双边进、出口额均有增加但产业异质性明显,中国各产业对日出口和进口均增加,其中纺织品对日本出口增量最大,机电产品自日进口增加额最多;中国对日本的货物贸易逆差增加。为此,中国应制定灵活的产业冲击应变政策,充分利用原产地区域累积规则,重视推进非关税壁垒优惠安排,做好贸易风险防范。

China and Japan are important trading partners to each other. The structure of trade products of the two sides is highly concentrated, the market is highly interdependent, and trade competitiveness and complementarity coexist. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP) will have a great impact on China-Japan trade in goods through the trade creation effect, trade diversion and trade reversal effect of China-Japan mutual tariff concessions, the lowering effect of the preferential threshold of the cumulative rules of origin, the cost-reducing effect of customs procedures and trade facilitation, and the indirect export-driven effect of trade in services and investment agreements. The simulation evaluation results of the GTAP model show that the tariff reduction between China and Japan will promote the import and export scale of both countries and have a stronger effect on Japan, improve their GDP and social welfare but deteriorate China’s term of trade and and trade balance. The bilateral import and export volume in all industries between China and Japan will increase, but the industry heterogeneity is obvious, of which the textile will have the largest increase in exports to Japan, and mechanical and electrical products have the largest increase in imports from Japan. China’s goods trade deficit with Japan will increase. Therefore, China should formulate flexible policies to respond to industrial shocks, make full use of the Cumulative Rules of Origin, pay attention to the promotion of preferential arrangements for non-tariff barriers, and do a good job in preventing trade risks.