人口结构变化视角下城乡收入差距的影响因素分析--以河北省为例

An Analysis of Influencing Factors of Urban-Rural Income Gap in Hebei Province from the Perspective of Population Structure Change

以河北省人口结构变化作为研究新视角,用少儿和老年抚养比、劳动年龄人口占比、城乡收入和城镇化等相关数据,通过向量自回归模型实证研究人口结构变化对城乡收入差距的影响因素分析。研究结果显示:第一,河北省城乡收入差距受城乡差距自身惯性的影响较大;第二,少儿抚养比和城镇化率对河北省城乡收入差距影响微乎其微;第三,老年抚养比对其有较大的正向影响;第四,劳动年龄人口占比对河北省城乡收入差距的影响呈“U”型,先有拉大的影响后有缩小差距的影响。基于此,从提升农村经济发展水平、提高剩余劳动力就业水平、给予家庭抚养补贴和提升劳动年龄人口质量等四方面提出建议,助力河北省进一步缩小城乡收入差距。

Taking the change of population structure in Hebei Province as a new research perspective,and us⁃ing relevant data such as the dependency ratio of children and the elderly,the proportion of the working-age popula⁃tion,and urban-rural income and urbanization,this paper empirically study the influencing factors of population structure change on the urban-rural income gap with the vector autoregression model.The research results show that:First,the urban-rural income gap in Hebei Province is greatly affected by the inertia of the urban-rural gap it⁃self;second,the child dependency ratio and urbanization rate have little impact on the urban-rural income gap in Hebei Province;third,the old-age dependency ratio has a greater positive impact on it;fourth,the impact of the pro⁃portion of the working-age population on the urban-rural income gap in Hebei Province is U-shaped,with the ef⁃fect of widening the gap first and then narrowing the gap.Based on this,this paper puts forward suggestions from the four aspects of improving the rural economy development,heightening the employment level of the surplus labor force,giving family support subsidies,and improving the quality of the working-age population,so as to contribute to Hebei Province further narrowing the urban-rural income gap.