我国天然气进口安全风险评价

Security Risk Evaluation on Natural Gas Import in China

天然气是我国最重要的能源之一,目前国内天然气供应将近一半依赖于国外进口。对外依存度过高、进口国家存在地缘政治风险等不稳定因素对我国天然气进口安全形成威胁,因此评价我国天然气进口安全风险、分析风险成因对提高我国能源安全水平具有重要意义。首先构建了天然气进口安全风险评价指标体系,然后通过主成分分析法计算出2010—2020年的天然气进口安全风险指数(GIRI),利用灰色关联分析法找出天然气进口安全的主要影响指标,并据此指出我国天然气进口安全存在的不足。研究显示:我国天然气进口安全风险变化趋势大致呈“N”字形,2010—2014年安全风险上升,2015—2016年安全风险下降,2017—2019年风险再次上升,2020年安全风险又呈下降趋势;资源风险、政治风险、市场风险三类指标中,进口依存度、天然气进口总值与国内生产总值之比、我国天然气在一次能源消费中的份额对天然气进口安全风险影响最大;我国面临着天然气占能源消费使用比例过高、进口依存度过高等问题。基于上述结论,提出了推进非常规天然气及海洋天然气开发、利用“一带一路”优势开展能源政治外交、通过探索新能源来降低对天然气的依赖等对策建议。

As one of the most important energies in our country,natural gas faces such unstable factors as the current high dependence on foreign supplies-nearly half dependent on imports,the geopolitical risks from the importing countries and so on,which constitutes a potential threat to China s gas import security.Evaluating the security risks of the natural gas imports and analyzing their causes is of enormous significance to enhancing our energy security levels.The paper first constructs a natural gas import security index system and then calculates its gas import risk security index(GIRI)from 2010 to 2020 by the principal component analysis.In this light,the paper finds the main indices affecting the natural gas import security by grey correlation method and comments on the weaknesses underlying our natural gas import security.The study draws the following conclusions.(1)The security risk of China s natural gas import shows a rough trend of"N"shape with the increasing security risk from 2010 to 2014,decreasing from 2015 to 2016,rising again from 2017 to 2019,and falling again in 2020.(2)Import dependence,the ratio of total natural gas import to gross domestic product,and our share of natural gas in primary energy consumption have the greatest impact on natural gas import security among resource risk,political risk and market risk.China is faced with the problems of high proportion of natural gas in energy consumption and high dependence on imports.Taken together,the paper puts forward three suggestions:promoting the development of unconventional natural gas and offshore natural gas,carrying out energy politics and diplomacy by enlisting"Belt and Road Initiative",and lessening dependence on natural gas by exploring new energy sources.