FTA原产地规则对价值链参与度的影响研究

The Impact of FTA Rules of Origin on GVC’s Participation

FTA原产地规则规定了产品国籍的认定标准,满足该标准才能享受FTA优惠关税,因此FTA原产地规则影响着贸易投资流向及各国参与全球价值链的程度。文章选取134个国家(地区)的248个FTA为样本,将原产地规则细分为38个条款进行量化,以原产地规则的成本效应和供应链转换效应为理论机制,实证分析FTA原产地规则对价值链参与度的影响。结果发现,FTA原产地规则对缔约方全球价值链参与度有显著的抑制作用,对后向参与度的抑制作用更强;国别分析发现,FTA原产地规则对中高收入水平以上国家的价值链参与度具有显著的抑制作用,但对中低收入水平国家作用相反,对低收入水平国家的影响不显著;行业分析发现,FTA原产地规则显著抑制了纺织和服装、电气和机械制造等敏感行业的价值链参与度,但对农业影响不显著;条款分析发现,原产地规则中的微量条款、完全累积等条款可以促进价值链参与度;机制分析发现,FTA原产地规则导致贸易成本增加和供应链转换分别对价值链参与度产生抑制作用和促进作用。

Rules of origin( Roos) in FTA stipulate the identification standard of product nationality. Only when the standard is met can they enjoy FTA preferential tariffs. Therefore,Roos in FTA could change the direction of trade and investment and the degree of countries’ participation in the global value chain( GVC). We select 248 FTAs from 134 countries as samples and subdivide the rules of origin into 38 clauses. Taking the cost effect and switch suppliers effect of rules of origin as the theoretical mechanism,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of Roos in FTA on GVC participation. The results show that: firstly,Roos in FTA have a significant inhibitory effect on countries’ GVC participation,and the inhibition of backward GVC participation was stronger.Secondly,according to country analysis,FTA rules of origin have a significant inhibitory effect on middle-and high-income countries’ GVC participation,but have the opposite effect on low-and middle-income countries. The effect of Roos in FTA on low-income countries is not significant. Thirdly,according to industry analysis,Roos in FTA significantly inhibit the GVC participation of sensitive industries such as textile and clothing,electrical and machinery manufacturing,but have no significant impact on agriculture. Forthly,the clause analysis of Roos in FTA shows that the micro clause and the full accumulation clause in the rules of origin can promote GVC participation. Finally,the channels analysis shows that Roos in FTA lead to the increase of trade cost and,which have a restraining and promoting effect on GVC participation respectively.