我国分省份预期寿命预测与养老金收入分配

Life Expectancy Forecast and Pension Income Distribution by Province in China

随着社会经济发展,我国人均预期寿命显著提高,但各省份差异较大。本文对全国及分省份男性和女性死亡率进行多层次分区域联合建模,对全国和各省份分性别、分年龄死亡率做出预测,在此基础上对全国和各省份分年龄、分性别预期寿命做出估计,并用于测算分析寿命差距对我国现行省级统筹基本养老金人均债务差距的影响,以及对正在推进的基本养老保险全国统筹下的收入分配效应的影响。结果表明:本文提出的死亡率模型能够较好地拟合和预测全国及分省份、分性别的死亡率;分省份和分性别的退休年龄预期寿命以及退休年龄人均养老金债务存在显著差距;如果实行基本养老保险的全国统筹,将产生低寿命地区向高寿命地区的额外补贴,建议在全国统筹方案的制定中将寿命差距导致的再分配纳入考虑。

The life expectancy in China has increased significantly over the recent decades,however,there are substantial differences in the life expectancy between provinces.This paper proposes a multi-level model with a national-regional-provincial structure for the age-and gender-specific mortality rates prediction of China and its provinces.Based on the model,we estimate the national and provincial life expectancies by age and gender,and analyze the impact of the life gaps on the average pension liabilities under the current provincial pension pool and the impact on the income distribution of the ongoing national pension pool.The results show that the proposed mortality model generates reasonable fits and forecasts for the national and provincial age-and gender-specific mortality rates.The life expectancy at retirement age for each gender and the average pension liability at retirement age vary significantly between provinces.If the national pension pool plan is implemented,additional subsidies will come from areas with low life expectancies to areas with high life expectancies.It is recommended that the redistribution caused by the life expectancy gaps be taken into consideration in the formulation of the national pension pool plan.