重庆市旅游生态安全评价及趋势预测

Evaluation and Trend Prediction of Tourism Ecological Security in Chongqing

旅游生态安全是区域旅游业发展的基础,开展旅游生态安全评价、障碍因子诊断及趋势预测的研究对旅游地生态环境保护,推动旅游业可持续发展具有重要作用。以重庆市为例,基于DPSIR模型构建了重庆市旅游生态安全评价指标体系,综合运用熵权TOPSIS法、障碍度模型、灰色预测模型等方法对2010—2019年重庆市旅游生态安全进行动态评价和障碍因子诊断,并对其未来时序变化趋势进行合理预测。结果表明:(1)总体上,重庆市旅游生态安全贴近度呈波动略有上升趋势,旅游生态安全等级由敏感级演变为临界安全级。(2)各子系统方面,压力系统呈下降趋势,安全等级由一般安全级变为敏感级,驱动力、状态、影响以及响应系统贴近度均呈上升势态。(3)近年重庆旅游生态安全的主要障碍因子为城镇化率和旅游交通压力,在今后改善重庆旅游生态安全状况时应得到足够重视。(4)按当前发展的态势,重庆市未来6年旅游生态安全贴近度将稳步提升。

Tourism ecological security is the basis of regional tourism development.The research of tourism ecological security evaluation,obstacle factor diagnosis and trend prediction plays an important role in protecting tourism ecological environment and promoting the sustainable development of tourism.Taking Chongqing as an example,the evaluation index system of tourism ecological security in Chongqing was constructed based on DPSIR model,and the dynamic evaluation and obstacle factor diagnosis of tourism ecological security in Chongqing from 2010 to 2019 were carried out comprehensively by using entropy weight TOPSIS method,obstacle degree model and grey prediction model,and the temporal change trend of tourism ecological security in Chongqing was reasonably predicted.The results show that:(1)on the whole,the closeness degree of tourism ecological security in Chongqing has been fluctuating slightly,and the tourism ecological security level has changed from sensitive level to critical level.(2)In terms of each subsystem,the pressure system shows a downward trend,the safety level changes from general safety level to sensitive level,and the driving force,state,influence and proximity of the response system all show an upward trend.(3)In recent years,the main obstacles to tourism ecological security in Chongqing are urbanization rate and tourism traffic pressure.Due attention has to be these factors when improving the tourism ecological security in Chongqing in the future.(4)According to the current development trend,the closeness degree of tourism ecological security in Chongqing will be steadily improved in the next six years.