基于历史数据探究气候变暖对我国瓜实蝇物候的影响

Investigating the impacts of climatic warming on phenology of Zeugodacus cucurbitae(Diptera:Tephritidae)in China based on historical data

对收集到的历年文献记载的瓜实蝇(Zeugodacus cucurbitae)历年发生数据与同期温度数据,通过线性回归分析其成虫始见期和种群高峰期的年际变化情况与温度升高的关系,以明确瓜实蝇对气候变暖的物候响应。结果表明,1990—2020年,全国及几个瓜实蝇危害地区年均温皆显著上升。在最近的20年间,瓜实蝇成虫在我国田间始见期和种群高峰期均显著推迟。除华东地区之外,华南、华中及西南地区的瓜实蝇始见期和种群高峰期均有一定程度的延迟。不同地区瓜实蝇对气候变暖的物候响应模式不同。在我国,瓜实蝇始见期随年均温提升呈现显著延迟趋势,而种群高峰期呈现提前趋势。笔者的研究旨在探索昆虫对全球气候变暖的响应及适应,对掌握未来气候变化背景下瓜实蝇的灾变规律及防控措施的优化具有重要意义。

In this study,the occurrence data of Zeugodacus cucurbitae and temperature data over years were collected from historical document records The inter-annual changes of adult first occurrence and population peak and their relationship with temperature increasing were analyzed by linear regression to clarify the phenological response of melon fruit fly to climate warming.Results showed that from 1990 to 2020,the average annual temperature in China as whole and several areas damaged by melon fruit fly increased significantly.In recent 20 years,the first occurrence and population peak of melon fruit fly adults in China were significantly delayed.Except East China,the first occurrences and population peak stage of melon fruit fly in South China,Central China and Southwest China were delayed to a certain extent.The phenological response patterns of melon fruit fly to climate warming varied in different regions.In China,as the annual average temperature increased,the first occurrence of melon fruit fly showed a significantly delayed trend and the population peak stage moved earlier.This study explores the response and adaptation of insects to global warming,which is of great significance to the calamity regularity of melon fruit fly and the optimization of control measures under the climate change in the future.