城市空间水环境胁迫影响机理分析--基于GWR模型

Influence Mechanism Analysis of Urban Space Water Environment Stress Based on GWR Model

以中国东南地区为例,运用地理加权回归(GWR)模型,对经济发展水平、产业发展情况、人口空间性聚集程度、环境治理能力、土地开放程度、区域开放政策6项城市空间水环境影响机理指标进行定量检验分析,分析得出:经济发展水平、人口空间性聚集程度、土地开放程度回归系数分别为0.0079、0.0965、0.0021,表明这三项影响机理指标对城市空间水环境胁迫产生正向相关(产生胁迫);产业发展情况、环境治理能力、区域开放政策回归系数分别为-0.0846、-0.1109、-0.0014,表明这三项影响机理指标对城市空间水环境胁迫产生负向相关(降低胁迫).为提高城市水环境治理效果,驱动城市经济与水环境协调、可持续发展,在生活污水控制、工业点源控制、城市面源污染控制等三方面提出建议.

Taking the southeast areas of China as an example,this paper makes a quantitative detection analysis on six indicators of urban spatial water environment impact mechanism,including economic development level,industrial development,the degree of population spatial aggregation,environmental governance capacity,the degree of land openness and regional opening policy,by using geographic weighted regression(GWR)model.It is concluded that the regression coefficients of economic development level,the degree of population spatial aggregation and the degree of land openness are 0.0079,0.0965 and 0.0021 respectively,indicating that these three impact mechanism indicators have a positive impact on the water environment stress(produce stress).The regression coefficients of industrial development,environmental governance capacity and regional opening policy are-0.0846,-0.1109 and-0.0014 respectively,indicating that these three impact mechanism indicators have a negative impact on the water environment stress(reduce stress).In order to improve the effect of urban water environmental governance and drive the coordinated and sustainable development of urban economy and water environment,suggestions are put forward in three aspects:domestic sewage control,industrial point source control and urban non-point source pollution control.