制度差异对中国对外直接投资的影响——基于“一带一路”倡议的调节效应分析

The Impact of Institutional Quality Differences on China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment( OFDI) :Based on the Moderating Effect Analysis of the Belt and Road Initiative

在双循环新发展格局大背景下,中国不断提高对外开放水平,向制度型开放转变,推动优质企业“走出去”。国家间的制度差异会影响经贸往来的交易成本,这是企业在选择对外直接投资(OFDI)的东道国时必须考虑的一个重要因素。理论分析表明:制度差异通过提高交易成本抑制对外直接投资,而国家间签署双边或多边合作协议可以缓解这种抑制作用。实证结果表明:政治制度差异和经济制度差异对OFDI有显著的抑制作用;东道国签署“一带一路”倡议可以显著缓解这种抑制作用,在考虑内生性问题后这一结果依然稳健;随着中国对东道国OFDI存量的增加,制度差异对中国OFDI的抑制作用逐步减弱,东道国签署“一带一路”倡议的调节效应减弱;以地理距离为门槛值,地理距离越大,“一带一路”倡议的调节效应越显著。

Institutional quality differences will increase the risk cost of economic and trade exchanges between two countries. Based on the transaction cost theory, this paper constructs a partial equilibrium model between Chinese enterprises and the host country government to illustrate that the institutional distance inhibits Chinese enterprises’ OFDI by generating transaction costs, and the host country signing the Belt and Road Initiative can alleviate this inhibition. Based on the panel data of 118 signatories of the Belt and Road Initiative from 2003 to 2019, this paper explores the impact of institutional quality differences on China’s OFDI and the moderating effect of the Belt and Road Initiative through empirical analysis. The results show that political and economic institutional quality differences have a significant inhibitory effect on China’s OFDI. The host country signing the Belt and Road Initiative can significantly alleviate the inhibitory effect, and this conclusion is still sound after considering endogenous problems. As the accumulation of China's OFDI in the host country increases, the inhibitory effect of institutional quality differences on China’s OFDI gradually weakens, and the moderating effect of the host country's signing the Belt and Road Initiative weakens. Taking geographical distance as the threshold value, the greater the geographical distance from China, the greater the moderating effect of the Belt and Road Initiative.