集体林区县域林业总产值影响因素研究

Study on Influencing Factors of Gross Output Value of County Forestry in Collective Forest Regions

基于2010-2017年福建省、湖南省和辽宁省3个省份的县级林权制度改革相关数据,运用固定效应模型探究影响林业总产值的因素,并在此基础上运用灰色动态关联度模型分析林业产业结构与林业总产值的关联程度。结果表明:林地流转面积、林地保险面积和合作社数量对林业总产值的增加有着显著正向影响;林业第一产业和林业第二产业对林业总产值的贡献较大,林业第三产业对林业总产值的影响较小。所以,为了促进林业产业发展,实现林业总产值增长以及优化林业产业结构,一方面应持续增加林地流转和林地保险面积,增加合作社数量并提高组织运行效率;另一方面应延长林业第二产业产业链,夯实林业第一产业基础性地位,大力提升林业第三产业比例,促进林业总产值稳步提高。

⑴ Background——At present, there are abundant research results on the reform of collective forest property rights system.However, the impact of specific measures of the reform of collective forestry property rights system on the gross output value of forestry is not discussed.⑵ Methods——The research data were obtained from 30 sample counties in Fujian, Hunan and Liaoning provinces(10 sample counties in each province) from 2010 to 2017 about the reform of collective forestry property rights system.First, the fixed effect model was used to explore the correlation between nine variables and gross output value of forestry, so as to find out the variables that had significant influence on gross output value of forestry.Then the grey correlation model was used to analyze the impact of the forestry primary, secondary and tertiary industries on the gross output value of forestry.⑶ Results——Among the variables of the reform of collective forestry property rights system, forest land circulation area, forest insurance area and the number of cooperatives have a significant positive impact on the gross output value of forestry.In the forestry industry structures, forestry primary and secondary industries have the greatest impact on the gross output value of forestry.The forestry secondary industry in Fujian Province has gradually replaced the primary industry and become the leading industry affecting the gross output value of forestry, and has become the pillar industry of many local forestry economy.The forestry tertiary industry in three provinces develops slowly and its influence is limited.Specifically speaking, the forestry tertiary industry in Fujian Province develops relatively well.From 2010 to 2017,the grey correlation degrees between forestry tertiary industry and gross output value of forestry in Pingnan County in Fujian Province are 1.0000,0.9975,0.9314,0.8389,0.7496,0.7041,0.6540 and 0.6151,respectively.The forestry tertiary industry has become the leading industry of the local forestry economy.So is in Cili County in Hunan Province.The gross output value of forestry in Liaoning Province still depends too much on the primary industry, followed by the secondary industry, and the tertiary industry has the least impact.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——First, promote the marketization construction of forestland circulation, improve the information services for property rights transaction, make full use of the market trading platform, and steadily expand the forest land circulation area.Second, improve the systematic forest insurance mechanism, implement various work of premium subsidies in the larger area of forest land, improve the ability of forest farmers to withstand the risk of natural disasters.Third, strengthen the construction of the forestry public service system with the forestry specialized cooperatives as the main body, and strengthen the training of forest farmers and the promotion of forest product brands with cooperatives as the platform.Fourth, realize the transformation and upgrading of forestry industry as soon as possible and increase the added value of forest products.Consolidate the foundation position of the forestry primary industry, increase the proportion of the secondary industry in the forestry industry, further improve management, protect the natural ecological environment of forest regions, and standardize the development of tourism.