自然灾害视域下应急救灾物资需求预测研究综述

A Review of Research on Demand Forecasting for Emergency Relief Materials in the Context of Natural Disasters

各类自然灾害下的应急救灾物资需求问题是当前物资储备领域的一个研究热点。首先,从中国知网数据库检索出117篇应急救灾物资需求预测主题论文,应用Gephi可视化分析主要关键词,得到预测方法和研究对象前3类分别为案例推理、时间序列预测、灰色预测模型及地震、洪涝、台风灾害。分别综述了每类方法的发展及当前最新研究成果、每类灾害的研究重点及热点;其次,对应急救灾物资需求预测领域的文献来源进行了可视化分析,表明该领域是当前高校科研关注的前沿领域,也是多学科融合的交叉领域。最后,针对理论与现实层面的缺口,展望该领域未来的发展方向,力图为相关研究人员的科研攻关提供参考。

The problem of emergency relief material demand under all kinds of natural disasters is a hot topic in the field of material reserve.First,117 papers were retrieved from CNKI database on the subject of demand forecasting of emergency relief materials,and Gephi was used to visualize the main keywords,and the first three categories of forecasting methods and research objects were obtained:case reasoning,time series forecasting,grey forecasting model and Earthquakes,floods,typhoons.The development of each methods and the latest research results,research focus and hot spots of each disasters were comprehensively reviewed.Secondly,the visual analysis of the literature sources in the field of emergency relief material demand forecasting shows that this field is the frontier field of scientific research of high-efficiency institutions and the intersection of multidisciplinary integration.Finally,aiming at the gap between theory and reality,we look forward to the future development of this field.direction,and strive to provide reference for relevant researchers in scientific research.