新冠疫情封控管理期间特大型城市用水量影响分析

Influence Analysis of Lockdown Measure during COVID-19 Epidemic on Water Consumption for a Mega City

新冠肺炎疫情的封控管理措施对城市生产生活造成较大影响,供水企业也面临人员极限配置、水量波动等问题,但疫情封控对供水企业运行影响的研究分析仍属空白。文中以上海特大型城市为研究对象,根据远传水表用水量数据同时辅以相应水厂的供水量数据,提取气候条件、节假日、工业总产值等疫情期间对用水量变化的关键影响因素,借鉴环比法、同比法和改进的横比法等数据分析对比经典方法,对疫情封控下的城市用水量影响情况做初步分析。结果表明,城市供水量受新冠疫情封控影响较大,下降时间和封控措施的实施同步,日均供水量的损失约为正常情况下的7%。其中,非居民用水量的下降为主要原因,日均损失的用水量约为正常情况下的30%~35%。建议供水企业加快信息化、智能化建设进程,利用大数据手段,进一步完善研究方法,为水务相关部门及供水企业在疫情下提前预判供水需求,进行科学调控并提供参考。

COVID-19 containment and management measures have greatly affected urban production and life.With the implementation of corresponding epidemic prevention and control measures,water supply companies also faced problems such as staff reduction and fluctuations in water volume.The current research and analysis in this area is still blank.In this paper,taking Shanghai mega city as the research object and combined with the data of remote-reading water meter and water supply data of corresponding waterworks at the same time;it textracted the climatic conditions,holidays,gross industrial output value as the key influencing factors of water consumption change during the epidemic,draws on month-on-month ratio,year-on-year ratio and the improved horizontal ratio method and other data analysis and comparison methods.The results showed that the urban water supply was seriously affected by the epidemic containment,the decline time was synchronized with the implementation of the epidemid control measures,and the average daily loss of water supply was about 7%of the normal situation.Among them,the decline of non-residential water consumption was the main reason,and the average daily loss of water consumption was about 30%~35%of the normal situation.It is suggested that water supply enterprises accelerate the process of informatization and intelligentization,and use big data to further improve research methods,so as to provide reference for water supply related departments and water supply enterprises to predict water supply demand in advance and carry out scientific control under the epidemic situation.