长江通江湖泊演变及其影响效应研究进展

Research Advances in Morphological Evolution of Lakes Connectingthe Yangtze River and Its Influences

在广泛查阅国内外相关文献的基础上,对长江中下游两大通江湖泊洞庭湖与鄱阳湖水沙输移规律、冲淤演变规律及对洪枯调控功能的影响这3个方面的研究进展进行了总结分析,并对当前研究中存在的不足提出了今后应加强的内容,主要包括:①自然和人为影响下两湖演变机制量化揭示,包括资料匮乏时期两湖的演变过程、各种自然因素对两湖冲淤演变的影响的识别、人类活动加剧时期两湖的自然冲淤过程等;②两湖未来长历时、大范围冲淤情势变化趋势预测,实现从两湖泥沙淤积总量预测到淤积时空分布格局变化预测转变;③两湖演变对洪枯调控功能影响的指标化评估,包括表征湖泊洪枯调控功能的指标研究及其与两湖未来不同冲淤情景的响应关系等方面。

On the basis of extensive review of relevant literatures in China and abroad,we summarize and analyse the research progresses on three hot issues concerning two river-connecting lakes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,namely,the Dongting Lake and the Poyang Lake.Such issues include:water and sediment transport law,erosion and deposition evolution law,and their impacts on flood/dry regulation function.We also put forward such aspects to be strengthened corresponding to the shortcomings of current research as follows:1)the quantitative evolution mechanism of the two lakes under natural and human influences,including the evolution of the two lakes in the period of scarce data,identification of the impact of natural factors on the erosion/deposition of the two lakes,and the natural erosion/deposition of the two lakes in the period of intensified human activities,etc;2)forecasting the trend of long-term and wide-range erosion and deposition of the two lakes,transforming from total sediment deposition forecast of the two lakes to prediction of spatio-temporal distribution pattern of sediment deposition;3)indicative assessment of the impact of the evolution of the two lakes on flood/dry regulation function,including indicators characterizing the flood/dry regulation function of the lakes and their responses to different scouring and silting scenarios in the future.