雅砻江和金沙江中下游梯级水库联合优化调度建模及应用Ⅰ——联合优化调度潜力分析

Modeling and Application of Joint Optimal Scheduling of CascadeReservoirs on Yalong River and the Middle and Downstream ofJinsha RiverⅠ:Potential Analysis

梯级水库群优化调度涉及联合建模、高效求解、规则提取、效益评估等多方面内容。以雅砻江和金沙江中下游梯级水库联合优化调度为主要目标,在水库群联合调度建模的基础上,引入大系统分解协调与离散微分动态规划方法进行优化求解,并设计多种方案进行效益分析。研究表明,联合优化调度相较于各水库单独调度发电量均有所增加,发电总量平均增大2.8%,尤其在来水偏丰年份,水库群联合优化对发电量提升效果显著。其中,金沙江下游梯级增发电量平均占总体增发电量的70%以上,在发电总量较低的年份,金沙江下游梯级增发电量基本等于三流域总体增发电量,展现了金沙江下游梯级库容大、水头高、调蓄能力强的巨大优势。同时,金沙江中游和金沙江下游联合优化发电量大于雅砻江和金沙江下游联合优化发电量,若能通过投资并购、调度补偿等多种形式,探索形成金沙江下游梯级与金沙江中游梯级联合优化调度模式具有重要意义。

The optimal scheduling of cascade reservoir groups involves joint modeling,efficient solution,rule extraction,benefit evaluation and other aspects.With the joint optimal scheduling of cascade power stations on the Yalong River and the middle and downstream of Jinsha River as the main goal,the large-scale system decomposition coordination and discrete differential dynamic programming method are introduced for optimal solution on the basis of joint scheduling modeling,and a variety of schemes are designed for benefit analysis.Results reveal that the power generation by joint optimal scheduling of cascades is much larger than those by separate scheduling,up by 2.8%on average.Especially in high flow year,joint optimal scheduling has a significant effect on the growth of power generation.The increase in power generation in downstream Jinsha River shares more than 70%of the total increase on average.In low flow year,the increase in power generation of downstream Jinsha River is basically equal to the total increase of the three basins,reflecting the great advantage of cascade reservoirs in downstream Jinsha River in terms of large storage capacity and high water head.In the mean time,the joint optimal power generation of the middle and downstream Jinsha River is larger than that of Yalong River and downstream Jinsha River.It would be of great significance to explore the joint optimal scheduling of cascade power station groups in the middle and downstream of Jinsha River through investment mergers and acquisitions,dispatching compensation and other forms.