淮河流域气温变化对Hiatus现象的时空响应分析

Spatiotemporal Response of Temperature Variation to Hiatus in the Huaihe River Basin During the Past 60 Years

选取1959—2018年淮河流域的27个气象站点气温数据,基于MK突变检验对淮河流域气温变化对Hiatus现象的响应进行了探讨。结果表明:(1)淮河流域全区年均温在2001年突变升高,四季气温突变变化差异较大。流域气温在1998年前后突变升高。(2)近60年研究区平均气温表现为0.023℃/10 a的增加趋势,而1998—2012年淮河流域的年均气温变化率为-0.251℃/10 a,存在较为显著的“变暖停滞”现象,且同时段最低气温和最高气温的变化趋势也呈现下降或者升温变缓趋势。(3)“变暖停滞”后气温进入快速升高阶段,2012—2018年年均气温变化率高达1.242℃/10 a,冬季均温变化是研究区气温变化趋势的主导。

Based on the MK mutation test,the response of temperature change to Hiatus in the Huaihe River Basin(HRB)was investigated by selecting the temperature data of 27 meteorological stations in the Huaihe River Basin from 1959 to 2018.The results show that:(1)the annual mean temperature of HRB increased sharply in 2001,and there was a great difference in the abrupt change of seasonal air temperature.The temperature of the basin increased sharply around 1998.(2)The average temperature in the study area increased by 0.023℃/10 a in the past 60 years,while the annual average temperature change rate in the HRB was 0.251℃/10 a from 1998 to 2012.There was a significant"warming stagnation"phenomenon,and at the same time,the trend of minimum temperature and maximum temperature also decreased or gradually increased.(3)After the"warming hiatus",the average annual temperature change rate was as high as 1.242℃/10 a from 2012 to 2018,and the average temperature change in winter was the dominant trend of temperature change in the study area.