脱贫户返贫风险监测预警机制构建

Construction of Risk Monitoring and Early Warning Mechanism of Returning to Poverty for Poverty Alleviation Households

在脱贫攻坚任务如期完成、小康社会全面建成的新时代背景下,脱贫人口返贫是巩固和拓展脱贫成果的重要风险因素。以“收入能力+债务承担能力-最低生活标准支出-突发风险所致支出”形成的收支缺口作为返贫风险信号,从返贫对象监测及识别、返贫风险预警、配套支撑3个方面构建返贫风险监测预警机制。其中:返贫对象监测层面以收支缺口作为标准,从动力、风险、经济、社会4个维度筛选多维有效指标构建返贫对象识别指标体系;返贫风险预警层面运用二分类Logistic回归分析方法构建返贫风险预警机制模型,从技术上对监测对象进行鉴定和识别,并发出预警;配套支撑层面则从计算机体系与数据库体系构建、技术创新和返贫风险应对协调机制3个方面进一步完善返贫风险监测预警机制。

In the new era when the key task of poverty alleviation is completed on schedule and a well-off society is fully built,the return of the poverty-alleviated population to poverty is an important risk factor for consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation.Taking the the income and expenditure gap formed by"income capacity+debt bearing capacity-minimum living standard expenditure-expenditure caused by sudden risks"as the risk signal of returning to poverty,the risk monitoring and early warning mechanism of returning to poverty is constructed from three aspects:monitoring and identification of the objects returning to poverty,risk warning for returning to poverty,and matching support.Among them,at the monitoring level of objects returning to poverty,the income and expenditure gap is used as the standard,and multi-dimensional effective indicators are selected from the four dimensions of power,risk,economy and society to construct an indicator system for identifying objects returning to poverty;at the level of risk warning for returning to poverty,the binary Logistic regression analysis method is used to construct the risk warning mechanism model for returning to poverty,technically identify and distinguish the monitoring objects,and issue an early warning;the supporting level further improves the monitoring and early warning mechanism for the risk of returning to poverty from three aspects:the construction of the computer system and database system,technological innovation and the coordinating mechanism for the risk of returning to poverty.