全球油气资源评价历程及展望

History and outlook of global oil and gas resources evaluation

油气资源评价是基于对油气成藏地质条件的掌握和判断来预测未来油气资源潜力,对油公司实施国际化战略具有重要意义。根据评价方法、油气地质理论、勘探技术、发现的圈闭类型等要素,将全球油气资源评价发展历史划分成4个阶段:早期起步阶段(1900—1957年)、快速发展阶段(1958—1985年)、稳定发展阶段(1986—2007年)和中国参与阶段(2008—现今)。全球油气资源评价结果受不同阶段所采用的评价方法、资源评价范围、油气地质理论、地球物理和钻井等勘探技术以及油价和油气产量等因素的影响。通过对比分析中国石油天然气集团有限公司(中国石油)2020年、美国地质调查局(USGS)2012年和国际能源署(IEA)2019年的全球油气资源评价或统计结果,认为中国石油(2020)评价结果更加全面,但待发现可采资源量评价结果较IEA(2019)偏低。随着油气地质理论的发展和科技的进步,未来将不断有油气资源转化为油气储量和产量,全球油气资源评价方法将逐步实现以烃源岩为核心的“整体”评价为主,评价结果将实现“立体”呈现,评价对象将持续向“两深一非”(深水、深层和非常规)拓展,评价过程将突出“经济性”和“低碳”要求,大数据和人工智能技术在未来全球油气资源评价中也将发挥重要作用。

The evaluation of oil and gas resources is to predict the potential of oil and gas resources in the future based on the understanding and judgement of the geological conditions of hydrocarbon accumulation,which is of great significance for oil companies to implement the internationalization strategy.According to the evaluation methods,petroleum geological theories,exploration technologies,and types of discovered traps,the development history of global oil and gas resources evaluation can be divided into four stages:start-up(1900-1957),rapid development(1958-1985),stable development(1986-2007)and participation by China(2008-).The evaluation results of global oil and gas resources are affected by the evaluation methods used at different stages,the evaluation scope of resources,petroleum geological theories,exploration technologies such as geophysics and drilling,as well as oil price,and hydrocarbon production.After comparing and analyzing the evaluation or statistical results of global oil and gas resources of China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC)in 2020,the United States Geological Survey(USGS)in 2012 and the International Energy Agency(IEA)in 2019,it is considered that the evaluation results of CNPC(2020)is more comprehensive,and the evaluation results of recoverable resources to be discovered are lower than those of IEA(2019).With the development of petroleum geological theories and the progress of science and technology,oil and gas resources will be continuously transformed into petroleum reserves and production in the future.The evaluation methods of global oil and gas resources will gradually focus on the overall evaluation of source rock as the core object,the evaluation results will be presented in a three-dimensional way,the evaluation objects will continuously expand to deep water,deep play and unconventional resources,the evaluation process will highlight the requirements in terms of“economy”and“low carbon”;big data and artificial intelligence technology will also play an important role in the future evaluation of global oil and gas resources.