饥荒经历对农户绿色生产技术选择的影响:促进还是抑制?

The Impact of Great Famine Experience on Farmers Green Production Technology Selection Choice:Positive or Negative?

基于湖北省1058份农户数据,借助烙印理论、二元Probit模型与多变量Probit模型,阐释饥荒经历对农户绿色生产技术选择的影响,研究发现:饥荒经历对农户绿色生产技术选择的影响总体呈负向。饥荒经历对农户绿色生产技术选择的影响存在异质性:相较于男性,饥荒经历对女性的负向冲击更大;在影响农户选择增险型与知识密集型绿色生产技术上,如新品种与病虫害绿色防治,饥荒经历存在抑制作用;在影响农户选择控险型、非知识密集型绿色生产技术上,如畜禽粪便资源化利用,饥荒经历则发挥促进作用。风险厌恶程度、人力资本积累与社会信任水平是饥荒经历作用于农户绿色生产技术选择的主要路径,且对于不同阶段经历饥荒的农户,饥荒经历的影响路径有所差别。基于此,从缓解农户风险厌恶程度、强化人力资本、增加社会信任水平等方面提出改进建议。

Based on imprinting theory and survey data from 1058 households in Hubei Province,this paper analyzes the impact of great famine experience on farmers green production technology selection choice.It is found that Great famine experience has a negative effect on farmers green production technology selection choice.There are heterogeneous effects of great famine experience on farmers green production technology selection choice.Compared to men,famine experience has a greater negative impact on women.It has inhibitory effect on the selection of risk-increasing and knowledge-intensive technologies,such as improved seed and integrated pest management technology.However,it plays a promoting role in the selection of risk-mitigating and non-knowledge-intensive technologies,such as comprehensive utilization of livestock manure.The impact of great famine experience materializes through farmers’risk aversion,human capital accumulation and social trust level and varies among farmers who experience the famine at different stages.Therefore,suggestions are put forward in term of mitigating farmers’risk aversion,strengthening human capital,and increasing the level of social trust.