数字经济如何平衡“稳增长调结构”目标——基于地区-行业层面的分析

How Does the Digital Economy Balance the Goal of "Steady Growth and Structural Adjustment"?:Analysis Based on Regional and Industry Level

“结构性减速”理论揭示出“稳增长”和“调结构”间的目标冲突,在经济结构迈向服务化的高质量发展阶段,数字经济为平衡目标冲突创造新的机遇。本文首先阐述数字经济平衡“稳增长调结构”目标的理论机制,进一步基于地区和行业层面的数据展开实证检验。研究结果表明,产业结构转型会减缓中国经济增长,验证得到“结构性减速”在中国成立;数字经济能平衡“稳增长调结构”目标,其在产业结构转型影响经济增长中发挥的调节效应是缓解“结构性减速”的关键;工业生产率及其增长率高于服务业,且存在结构性差异,满足“结构性减速”的生产率前提;数字化改造有助于提升行业生产率,且对服务业生产率的提升效果优于工业,这为实施差异化的数字化建设来平衡“稳增长调结构”目标提供依据;基于39个细分行业的异质性分析表明,数字化改造的生产率提升效应在行业内部存在较大差异,政府须有针对性地引导数字资源配置到更高效的行业。本文研究为政府借助数字经济实现“稳增长调结构”目标的高质量发展提供政策建议。

The theory of "structural deceleration" reveals the goal conflict between "stable growth" and "structural adjustment". In the stage of high-quality development of economic structure towards service,digital economy creates new opportunities for balancing the goal conflict. This paper first explains the theoretical mechanism of the digital economy to balance the goal of "steady growth and structural adjustment",and then conducts an empirical test based on regional and industrial data. The results show that:The transformation of industrial structure will hinder China?s economic growth,and it is verified that the "structural slowdown" is established in China;Digital economy can balance the goal of "stabilizing growth and adjusting structure",and its adjustment effect in the impact of industrial structure transformation on economic growth has become the key to alleviate the "structural slowdown";Industrial productivity and its growth rate are higher than those of service industry,and there are structural differences,which meets the productivity premise of "structural deceleration";Digital transformation helps to improve the productivity of the whole industry,and the effect of improving the productivity of service industry is better than that of industry,which provides a basis for the implementation of differentiated digital construction to balance the goal of "steady growth and structural adjustment";Based on the heterogeneity analysis of 39 sub industries,it shows that the productivity improvement effect of digital transformation is quite different within the industry. The government must guide the allocation of digital resources to more efficient industries. This paper provides policy suggestions for the government to achieve the goal of "stable growth and structural adjustment" with the help of digital economy.