贸易大通道下GVC嵌入能带给“一带一路”环境红利吗——基于隐含碳视角

Can GVC Embeddings Bring "Environmental Dividends" to "The Belt and Road" Under the Construction of Trade Channels? From the Perspective of Carbon Embodied in Trade

贸易全球化步伐的加快使环境问题加剧,绿色逐渐成为各区域贸易的底色。本文从“一带一路”倡议出发,创新性提出贸易大通道建设下全球价值链位置提升是否有利于污染贸易条件改善这一核心问题。采用OECD数据库中“一带一路”及非“一带一路”共64个国家(或地区)2005—2014年的贸易数据测度贸易畅通指数,利用WWYZ方法测算GVC嵌入位置,并使用MRIO计算污染贸易条件。同时采用SYS-GMM及门槛模型实证分析贸易大通道建设下GVC嵌入位置与环境红利的关系。结果表明:第一,GVC嵌入位置对于污染贸易条件的影响呈U型,且贸易大通道建设使其影响更为显著,绿色“一带一路”建设初期各经济体有望同时实现价值链位置攀升和减排;第二,规模效应以及环境规制对出口隐含碳排放存在门槛效应,且越过门槛前规模效应的扩大、环境规制的加强会导致碳排放增加。

The acceleration of trade globalization aggravates the environmental problems,and green gradually becomes the background color of regional trade. Taking "The Belt and Road" initiative as an example,this paper innovatively puts forward the core question whether the rising of GVC position is conducive to the improvement of pollution terms of trade under the construction of trade channels. In this paper,data of BRI districts,a total of 64 countries or regions in 2005—2014 is chosen from OECD. We measure the trade facilitation first. Then,we estimate GVC position and embodied carbon emissions,using the method of WWYZ and MRIO respectively. After that,we use SYS-GMM and threshold model to do empirical analysis of relationship between GVC position and pollution terms of trade under the construction of trade channels.The results show that:(1)The impact of GVC position on pollution terms of trade is Ushaped,and it is more significant due to the construction of trade channels. The regions of green BRI are expected to achieve both rising of GVC position and emission reduction at the initial stage.(2)Trade scale and environmental regulation have threshold effect on the embodied carbon emissions of exports,while the expansion of scale effect and the intensification of environmental regulation will lead to the increase of carbon emissions before the threshold is reached.