气温与PM_(2.5)对呼吸系统疾病死亡的协同效应研究

Study of the synergistic effect of air temperature and PM_(2.5) on the death of respiratory diseases

目的研究细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))与气温协同作用对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡人群的影响。方法采用基于时间序列的广义相加模型探讨该地区PM_(2.5)浓度和气温对人群的健康效应影响,建立双变量响应曲面,评估PM_(2.5)及气温对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡影响的交互作用。结果2014—2018年,该地区居民因呼吸系统疾病死亡共25971例,每日平均死亡人数为14例。PM_(2.5)对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响存在滞后效应,滞后2 d时效应最大,每升高10μg/m^(3)。居民每日呼吸系统疾病死亡风险增加0.36%(95%CI:0,0.72%)。低温、高浓度PM_(2.5)条件下,呼吸系统疾病的死亡风险最高,低温与PM_(2.5)对呼吸系统疾病死亡风险存在协同效应。结论大气PM_(2.5)暴露可引起居民呼吸系统疾病死亡风险升高,且低温与其存在协同作用。

Objective To study the effect of the synergistic effect of PM_(2.5) and air temperature on the death population of residents with respiratory diseases.Methods A generalized additive model based on time series was used to explore the health effects of PM_(2.5) concentration and air temperature on the population in this area,and a bivariate response surface was established to evaluate the interaction between PM_(2.5) and air temperature on the death of residents from respiratory diseases.Results From 2014 to 2018,there were 25971 deaths of residents in the area due to respiratory diseases,with an average daily death toll of 14 cases.The effect of PM_(2.5) on the death of residents’respiratory diseases had a lag effect,and the effect was the largest when the lag was 2 d,with every increase of 10μg/m^(3).Residents’daily risk of death from respiratory diseases was increased by 0.36%(95%CI:0,0.72%).Under the conditions of low temperature and high concentration of PM_(2.5),the mortality risk of respiratory diseases was the highest,and low temperature and PM_(2.5) had a synergistic effect on the mortality risk of respiratory diseases.Conclusion Atmospheric PM_(2.5) exposure can increase the risk of death from respiratory diseases in residents,and low air temperature has a synergistic effect.