经济政策不确定性、供应链关系与企业信用风险

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Supply Chain Relationship and Corporate Credit Risk

有效管控信用风险是防范系统性金融风险的关键,经济政策不确定性作为企业经营面临的外部冲击,是影响企业信用风险的重要因素。基于对2009—2020年我国A股上市公司数据进行研究的结果表明,经济政策不确定性上升会显著提升企业信用风险水平,且非国有企业和高融资约束企业的信用风险增幅更大;企业外部银行贷款和内部投资活动是经济政策不确定性影响企业信用风险的重要传导途径;供应链关系能够有效调节经济政策不确定性对企业信用风险的影响,从资源关系管理出发降低客户集中度、缩短与主要客户之间的地理距离,以及从资金关系管理入手增加供应链中商业信用融资净值,可缓解经济政策不确定性对企业信用风险的影响,提升企业抗风险能力,维持金融市场稳定。

Controlling the credit risk effectively is the key to preventing systemic financial risk. Economic policy uncertainty,as an external shock to corporate operations,is an important factor affecting corporate credit risk.Based on the data of A-Share Listed companies in China from 2009 to 2020,we investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate credit risk and its mechanism,and explore the role of supply chain relationship in it. The results show that the rise of economic policy uncertainty significantly increases the level of corporate credit risk,and that this effect is more obvious in non-state-owned and capital-constrained corporates. Corporate external bank loans and internal investment activities are important mechanisms through which economic policy uncertainty affects corporate credit risk. This impact can be effectively moderated by the supply chain relationship. Specifically,reducing customer concentration,shortening the geographical distance with major customers from the perspective of resource relationship management,and increasing the net value of trade credit from the perspective of capital relationship management can alleviate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate credit risk,improve corporate risk resistance ability,and maintain financial market stability.