新疆科技产出对区域经济增长的影响实证研究——基于VAR模型

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Scientific and Technological Output on Regional Economic Growth in Xinjiang:Based on VAR model

以新疆生产总值GDP作为衡量经济增长指标,将科技产出指标在科技成果、技术扩散和销售能力3个层次上分为6个二级指标。首先对科技产出指标和GDP进行相关性分析,其次对GDP和6个二级指标进行平稳性检验和差分处理,建立时间序列的3个VAR模型,运用Eviews软件对模型进行单位根检验和Engle-Granger协整检验,得出通过检验的模型,对模型进行单变量脉冲响应和方差分解分析,得到高新技术产业企业数和专利授权数对GDP的贡献度。最后针对新疆未来经济高质量、健康和稳步发展提出对策建议。

Taking Xinjiang’s GDP as the index to measure economic growth,the scientific and technological output index is divided into six secondary indexes at the three levels of scientific and technological achievements,technological diffusion and sales capacity;Firstly,the correlation analysis between scientific and technological output indicators and GDP is carried out.Secondly,the stationarity test and difference processing of GDP and six secondary indicators are carried out,and three VAR models of time series are established.The unit root test and Engle-Granger cointegration test are carried out on the model by using Eviews software,and the tested model is obtained.The model is analyzed by univariate impulse response and variance decomposition,get ting the contribution of the number of high-tech industrial enterprises and patent authorization to GDP,and finally the countermeasures and suggestions are proposed for the high-quality,healthy and steady development of Xinjiang’s economy in the future.