基于组合赋权云模型的阻力伞保障风险评估

Risk Assessment of Resistance Umbrella Support Based on Combined Weighted Cloud Model

针对阻力伞保障风险指标体系不完善、风险管理不系统的问题,通过工作分解结构(work breakdown structure, WBS)-资源分解结构(resource breakdown structure, RBS)法兼顾工作流程和风险要素,建立清晰完善的阻力伞保障风险指标体系。采用组合赋权法融合不确定层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process, AHP)-集对分析的主观权重和CRITIC法(criteria importance though intercriteria correlation)的客观权重实现对风险指标的合理赋权,建立基于云模型的风险评估模型确定风险等级,引入雷达图直观地展示和等级并进行风险分析。研究结果对于实施风险控制、提升保障效率和确保飞行安全具有重要意义。

Aiming at the problems of imperfect resistance parachute support risk index system and unsystematic risk management, a clear and perfect resistance parachute support risk index system was established by taking into account workflow and risk elements through work breakdown structure(WBS)-resource breakdown structure(RBS) method. The combination weighting method was used to integrate the subjective weight of uncertain analytic hierarchy process(AHP) set pair analysis and the objective weight of criteria importance though intercriteria correlation(CRITIC) method to realize the reasonable weighting of risk indicators, a risk assessment model was established based on cloud model to determine the risk level, and the radar chart was introduced to intuitively display and grade and conduct risk analysis. The research results are of great significance for implementing risk control, improving support efficiency and ensuring flight safety.