城市房价对劳动力流入的动态效应研究

Research On Dynamic Effect of Urban Housing Price On Labor Migration

城市高质量发展需要劳动力的持续供给,城市房价是影响劳动力流入的重要因素。文章首先从理论上证明,城市房价对劳动力流入存在短期抑制效应和长期促进效应,并且会通过城市公共服务进行调节。随后利用2004~2018年地级市面板数据进行实证考察,结果表明:第一,城市房价对劳动力流入存在显著的动态效应,即短期抑制效应和长期促进效应。该结论在考虑了内生性问题以后,依然成立。第二,相对于小城市而言,大中城市的房价对劳动力流入在长期内具有显著促进效应。第三,相对于中西部城市而言,东部地区城市的房价对劳动力流入在长期内具有显著促进效应。第四,在短期城市房价更有利于促进本市移民和本省外市移民,而在长期则更有利于本省外市移民和外省移民。第五,城市房价对劳动力流入的影响主要通过更好的城市公共服务而得到调节。因此,在高质量发展阶段,为了促进城市高质量发展,需要实现劳动力在城市间合理流动,以满足城市高质量发展过程中劳动力需求。

High-quality development depends on sustainable supply of labor force,which is highly affected by urban housing price.At first,this paper demonstrated the short-term inhibition effect and long-term promotion effect of labor migration by housing price as well as housing price adjustment by urban public services theoretically.Then,this paper,based on practical investigation of panel data of prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2018,obtained the following find⁃ings:(1)Housing price imposes significantly dynamic effects to labor migration,including both short-term inhibition ef⁃fect and long-term promotion effect,even when the endogeneity is considered(.2)Contrary to small cities,housing price significantly promotes labor migration in the long run in large and medium-sized cities.(3)Contrary to Midwestern cit⁃ies,housing price significantly promotes labor migration in the long run in eastern cities.(4)In the short term,urban housing price better facilitates labors migrated into local cites and other cities of the province.In the long run,urban housing price is more beneficial to labor migration into other cities of the province and other provinces.(5)The effects of housing price on labor migration could be regulated by better urban public services.As a result,at the high-quality development stage,rational guidance and support should be given for labor migration into cities in order to meet labor force demands.