中国胡麻进出口贸易影响因素研究——基于CMS模型的实证分析

The influence factors of China’s flax import and export trade——Empirical analysis based on constant market share model

近年来,中国市场对特色油料的消费量呈持续增长的势头。胡麻作为最主要的特色油料作物之一,国内刚性需求不断增加致产需缺口持续扩大,中国的胡麻贸易逆差现象显著。文章整理了2010~2020年胡麻的进出口数据,运用恒定市场份额模型(CMS),对中国胡麻进出口增长进行分解。最后的实证分析表明,中国胡麻贸易持续逆差的主要原因:出口过分依赖世界市场的需求;出口结构有待进一步优化;中国胡麻需求不断扩大,供给不足;进口竞争力大。

In recent years, the consumption of specialty oils in the Chinese market continues to grow.As one of the most important characteristic oil crops, flax has been continuously increased in domestic rigid demand, resulting in the continuous expansion of the gap between production and demand, and China’s flax trade deficit is significant.This paper organizes the import and export data of flax products from 2010 to 2020,and uses the constant market share(CMS)model to decompose the import and export growth of flax products in China.The final empirical analysis shows that the main reasons for China’s continuous deficit in flax trade are as follows: First, China’s flax exports are overly dependent on the demand of the world market;second, the export structure of Chinese flax need to be further improved;third, China’s domestic flax demand continues to expand, but the supply is insufficient;fourth, the import competitiveness of China’s flax products has led to a rapid increase.