基于社会网络分析方法的国际丝绸贸易格局研究

Research on International Silk Trade Pattern Based on Social Network Analysis Method

文中采用社会网络分析法,通过构建贸易网络模型,利用1995—2019年国际丝绸贸易数据,实证分析国际丝绸贸易网络结构演化的特征。结果显示,自世界贸易组织(WTO)成立以来参与国际丝绸贸易的主要国家相对稳定,国际丝绸贸易网络格局经历了先集中后分散的演化历程。该演化历程主要分为3个阶段:第一阶段是2001年以前,网络集中度上升;第二阶段是2002—2008年,网络集中度保持稳定;第三阶段是2009年以后,网络趋于分散。1995—2019年,中国从国际丝绸贸易的半边缘国家升级成为核心国家,在丝绸贸易网络中的中心地位明显上升,有力地促成了国际丝绸贸易的多极化趋势。

Using data of international silk trade from 1995 to 2019, this paper is attempted to build a trade network model by making use of social network analysis method to empirically analyze the characteristics of structural evolution of international silk trade network. The results shows that since the establishment of WTO, the major countries participating in international silk trade are relatively stable, and the pattern of international silk trade network has experienced a process from centralization to decentralization. This evolution could be divided into three stages. The first stage was before 2001, the trade network concentration rised. In the second stage, from 2002 to 2008, the trade network concentration remained stable. The third stage was after 2009, the trade network tended to be decentralized. From 1995 to 2019, China had been upgraded from a semi-marginal country to a core country in the international silk trade, and its position in the network rose significantly, which effectively contributed to the trend of multi-polarization in the international silk trade.