哈长城市群县(市)高质量发展的时空演变与驱动力研究

Dynamic Evolution and Driving Force of High-Quality Development in Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration at the County Level

县(市)高质量发展是新型城镇化的重要目标,是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的重要支撑。文章以哈长城市群63个县(市)为研究区域,从创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五大维度构建指标体系,综合运用高质量发展测度模型、地理探测器等方法对2010—2019年哈长城市群县(市)高质量发展的动态演变与驱动力进行研究,得出如下结论:(1)2010—2019年哈长城市群县(市)高质量发展水平较低,五大维度均呈现出不同程度的下降态势,其中,创新驱动、协调有序、开放程度与共享繁荣四大维度呈波动下降态势,绿色发展维度呈“U型”发展趋势。在哈长城市群内属于黑龙江省的37个县(市)地区中,创新驱动、协调有序与共享繁荣维度均呈现下降趋势,绿色发展与开放程度维度则呈“U型”发展态势。在哈长城市群内属于吉林省的26个县(市)中,协调有序与共享繁荣维度呈持续下降趋势,创新驱动与绿色发展维度呈“U型”发展态势,开放程度维度呈先升后降的“倒U型”曲线。(2)哈长城市群县(市)高质量发展空间分异性显著,呈现团块式、圈层式的格局特征,县(市)高质量发展水平较高地区主要以块状形式分布在哈长城市群的西北及东南地区,高质量发展水平较低区域主要呈以东北—西南为走向的条带状分布,大部分县(市)高质量发展呈现集聚不明显、不平衡态势。(3)哈长城市群县(市)高质量发展的驱动力包括经济开放水平、产业结构、基础设施水平以及集聚能力,根据驱动力排序为经济开放水平>人口密度>产业结构>基础设施水平。各驱动因子对哈长城市群、隶属黑龙江省县(市)及隶属吉林省县(市)的驱动力大小和强度存在一定差异,经济开放水平是促进哈长城市群县(市)高质量发展的主要驱动力,经济开放水平与集聚能力是推动哈长城市群内隶属黑龙江省的县(市)高质量发展的关键驱动力,产业结构和基础设施水平是推进哈长城市群内隶属吉林省的县(市)高质量发展的重要驱动力。

The high-quality development of counties is an important goal of new urbanization and an important support for building a socialist modern country in an all-round way. Taking 63 counties(county-level cities) of Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration as the research area, this paper constructs an index system from the five dimensions of innovation,coordination, green, openness and sharing, and studies the dynamic evolution and driving force of the county-level highquality development of Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration in 2010-2019 by comprehensively using the high-quality development measurement model and the methods of spatial correlation and geographical detector. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) From 2010 to 2019, the high-quality development level of the counties(cities) of HarbinChangchun urban agglomeration was relatively low, and the five dimensions all showed a downward trend in varying degrees. Among them, the four dimensions of innovation driven, orderly coordination, the degree of openness and shared prosperity showed a fluctuating downward trend, and the green development dimension showed a "U-shaped" development trend. Among the 37 counties(cities) of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration in Heilongjiang Province, the dimensions of innovation driven, orderly coordination and shared prosperity all showed a downward trend,while the dimensions of green development and the degree of openness showed a "U-shaped" development trend. Among the 26 counties(cities) of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration in Jilin Province, the dimension of orderly coordination and shared prosperity had a continuous downward trend, the dimension of innovation driven and green development had a "U-shaped" development trend, and the degree of openness had an "inverted U-shaped" curve. (2) The county-level high-quality development in Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration had significant spatial differentiation,showing the pattern characteristics of agglomeration and circle. The areas with high-quality development level of the counties(cities) mainly distributed in the northwest and southeast of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration in the form of blocks. The areas with low-quality development level mainly distributed in the direction of the northeastsouthwest by the shape of strip. The high-quality development of most counties(cities) presented a situation of agglomeration and imbalance. (3)The driving forces of the county-level high-quality development in Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration include the level of economic opening, industrial structure, infrastructure level and agglomeration capacity. The order of the driving forces from high to low is economic opening level, population density, industrial structure and infrastructure level. There are certain differences in the size and intensity of the driving forces of each driving factor in the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration and between two provinces. The economic openness level is the main driving force to promote the county-level high-quality development in the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration. The economic openness level and agglomeration capacity are the key driving forces to promote the county-level high-quality development in Heilongjiang Province of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration, The industrial structure and infrastructure level are important driving factors to promote the county-level high-quality development in Jilin Province of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration.