中国八大城市群经济韧性的空间差异与动态演进

Spatial Differences and Dynamic Evolution of Economic Resilience in China’s Eight Major Urban Agglomerations

文章基于2005—2019年中国八大城市群138个地级市的面板数据,运用熵值法对其经济韧性进行测度,在此基础上利用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计和Markov链方法考察八大城市群经济韧性的空间差异及分布动态演进。研究表明:考察期内八大城市群经济韧性均显著提升,但具有明显的空间非均衡特征;八大城市群经济韧性的总体差异呈下降趋势,城市群间差异是总体差异的主要来源;各城市群均呈现两极或多极化特征;中国城市经济韧性向高水平方向转移趋势明显,经济韧性高的城市呈自我强化状态且对周边城市具有正向的空间溢出效应。

Based on the panel data of 138 prefecture-level cities in China’s eight urban agglomerations from 2005 to 2019,this paper uses entropy method to measure its economic resilience,and then uses the method of Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation and Markov chain to investigate its spatial differences and distribution dynamic evolution.The results are shown as follows:During the inspection period,the economic resilience of the eight major urban agglomerations has improved significantly,but it has obvious spatial disequilibrium characteristics.The overall difference of the economic resilience of the eight urban agglomerations is declining,and differences between urban agglomerations are the main source of overall differences.All the urban agglomerations show the characteristics of two poles or multi-polarization.The economic resilience of Chinese cities is shifting to a higher level;the cities with high economic resilience are self-strengthening and have a positive spatial spillover effect on the surrounding cities.