2022年6月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in June 2022

目的评估2022年6月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。方法根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“WHO各分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。结果与2022年5月相比,全球月新增确诊病例上升了10.1%,全球月新增死亡病例下降了17.3%。相较于5月,6月新增确诊病例除西太平洋和非洲区下降外,其他各区均上升,增幅在20.4%~219.7%之间,增幅最大的为东地中海区;新增死亡病例除东地中海区、西太平洋区、美洲区(南)外,其余各区均下降,降幅在12.1%~50.5%之间,降幅最大的为东南亚区。德国、法国、巴西和英国是6月全球重点关注国家,印度和阿富汗是我国陆地接壤十四国中特别关注国家。结论与5月相比,6月全球新增确诊病例呈上升趋势,死亡病例呈下降趋势,其中东地中海区和美洲区(南)的确诊和死亡病例均上升,应予以重点关注,及时沟通并调整防控措施。

Objective To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in June 2022 and the risk of importation.Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University,combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford,an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview,a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries,as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighboring countries.The assessment results for each country are expressed as“countries of global concern”,“countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region”and“neighboring countries of special concern”.Results Compared with May 2022,the global monthly new confirmed cases rose by 10.1%,and the global monthly new deaths dropped by 17.3%.Compared with May,except for the decrease in the Western Pacific region and Africa region,the new confirmed cases in June all increased,ranging from 20.4%to 219.7%,with the largest rise in the Eastern Mediterranean region.Except for the increase in the Eastern Mediterranean region,the Western Pacific region and the Americas(South)region,the number of new deaths decreased in other regions,ranging from 12.1%to 50.5%,with the largest decline in South-east Asia region.Germany,France,Brazil and the United Kingdom were countries with global concern.India and Afghanistan were land-boarding countries with special concern.Conclusion The global daily newly confirmed cases showed an upward trend,while the deaths showed an downward trend in June.The epidemic situation in the Eastern Mediterranean and Americas(South)region is still aggravating,with the number of newly confirmed cases and deaths both increasing,which should be paid special attention to,timely communicate and adjusted measures.