稳字当头的2022年中国宏观经济

CHINA’S MACRO-ECONOMY IN 2022 WITH GROWTH STABILITY AS THE FIRST POLICY PRIORITY

2022年是国际国内超预期事件高发的一年。本文认为,“三重压力”叠加“两大超预期冲击”使上半年中国宏观经济运行严重偏离正常增长轨道,呈现“快速探底”“压力加剧”的特征。但随着近期疫情因素逐渐消退和宏观政策刺激力度加大,核心经济参数的拐点纷纷到来,中国经济运行的底部将充分显现。展望下半年,中国宏观经济必将迎来企稳回升态势,但复苏的进程将比2020年更加脆弱,将呈现非对称的“W型复苏”的运行特征。上半年宏观政策调整及时、靠前发力,但力度不足、效率下降;下半年需要更大力度、更加精准的宏观调控举措,政策效果也必将会有更充分的体现。此外,为保证全年经济目标的基本完成,稳经济一揽子措施需要在中期进行扩容和工具的创新。最后,本文结合当前我国宏观经济面临的机遇与挑战,提出了未来我国经济发展的十大建议。

2022 is a year with a high incidence of unexpected events at home and abroad.This paper believes that the“triple pressure”combined with the“two unexpected shocks”made China’s macro-economic operation seriously deviate from the normal growth track in the first half of the year,showing the characteristics of“rapid bottoming”and“increased pressure”.However,as the recent epidemic factors gradually subside,the macro policy stimulus has increased,and the inflection points of core economic parameters have come one after another,the bottom of China’s economy will be fully revealed.Looking forward to the second half of the year,China’s macro-economy will usher in a stabilization and recovery trend,but the recovery process will be more fragile than that in 2020,and China’s macro-economy will show the operating characteristics of asymmetric“W-shaped recovery”.The macro policy adjustment in the first half of the year was timely and forward,but the intensity was insufficient and the efficiency decreased.In the second half of the year,greater efforts and more precise macro-control measures are needed,and the policy effect will be more fully reflected.In addition,in order to ensure the basic completion of the annual economic goals,China’s package of measures to stabilize the economy needs to expand capacity and innovate tools in the medium term.Finally,combined with the opportunities and challenges facing China’s macro-economy,this paper puts forward ten suggestions for China’s economic development in the future.