盐亭县2006-2015年食管癌和胃癌发病死亡趋势分析

Analysis of incidence and death trend of esophageal cancer and gastric cancer in Yanting County from 2006to 2015

目的 分析四川省盐亭县2006-2015年食管癌和胃癌发病死亡趋势变化,为上消化道肿瘤防治提供流行病学数据。方法 根据国际肿瘤编码规则(ICD-O-3),截取2006-2015年盐亭县肿瘤登记数据库食管癌(C15)和胃癌(C16)发病死亡数据共计23 513例。采用Segi’s世界标准人口构成计算世界人口年龄标化率。分析2006-2015年发病率和死亡率变化趋势。用Joinpoint回归方程估计发病(死亡)率的年度变化百分比(APC)及95%CI。结果 全部病例的病理诊断比例为83.00%,仅有死亡证书比例为0.30%。诊断依据不明比例为0.01%;未指明部位及原发部位不明为0.02%。Joinpoint回归自动分为两个阶段,发病率均以2012年为截点,2006-2012年食管癌和胃癌发病率均无明显变化,2013-2015年发病率呈现明显下降趋势(P<0.05),APC分别为-5.99%和-9.34%。死亡率均以2013年为截点,2006-2013年食管癌和胃癌死亡率均无明显变化,2014-2015年死亡率呈现明显下降趋势(P<0.05),APC分别为-15.35%和-10.57%。结论 盐亭县食管癌胃癌发病死亡均呈现下降趋势,胃癌发病死亡高于食管癌。

Objective To analyze the changes in the incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer and gastric cancer in the high-risk area of Yanting County, Sichuan Province from 2006 to 2015,and to provide epidemiological data for the prevention and treatment of upper gastrointestinal cancer.Methods According to the International Tumor Coding Rules(ICD-O-3),a total of 23 513 cases of esophageal cancer(C15) and gastric cancer(C16) were collected from Yanting County Cancer Registry Database.Segi’s world standard population composition was used to calculate the age-standardized rate of the world population, and the trend of morbidity and mortality from 2006 to 2015 was analyzed.The Joinpoint regression program was used to estimate the percentage of annual change(APC) in morbidity(death) and its 95% confidence interval(CI).Results The pathological diagnosis ratio(MV) was 83.00%,and only death certificate ratio was 0.30%.The diagnosis was based on the unknown proportion 0.01%;the unspecified site and the primary site unknown were 0.02%.JoinPoint regression was automatically divided into two stages, with 2012 as the cut-off point.The incidence of esophageal squamous carcinoma and gastric adenocarcinoma showed no significant change from 2006 to 2012,while the incidence showed a significant downward trend from 2013 to 2015(P<0.05),with APC of-5.99% and-9.34%,respectively.The death rates of esophageal cancer and gastric cancer showed no significant change from 2006 to 2013,but showed a significant downward trend from 2014 to 2015(P<0.05),with APC of-15.35% and-10.57%,respectively.Conclusions The incidence and mortality of upper gastrointestinal tumors are decreasing.Gastric cancer has higher levels of incidence and mortality than esophageal cancer.