装配式建筑施工安全风险评估与控制的BN-MNA模型及应用

Safety Risk Assessment and Control of Prefabricated Building Construction Based on BN-MNA Model

为了系统、有效地对装配式建筑施工安全风险进行评估与控制,文章建立了BN-MNA模型并开展实证研究。首先,构建包括风险源、工种、管理责任、时间和空间等关联要素的建筑施工安全风险系统;然后,基于系统框架,构建装配式建筑施工安全风险的元网络分析(MNA)模型;随后,通过贝叶斯网络(BN)引入概率以构建BN-MNA模型,进行风险源重要度分析和风险源节点的风险评估值定量计算;最后,针对风险性较大风险源节点,输出风险控制路径以明确相关责任主体,做到事前关联事件精准控制,同时,对已发生风险事件反向诊断,实现事后有效控制。研究表明:BN-MNA模型能够有效实现装配式建筑施工安全风险评估与控制一体化目标,通过关键风险概率推演为装配式建筑施工安全风险控制提供现实依据。

In order to systematically and effectively assess and control the safety risks of prefabricated building construction, a BN-MNA model is established and conducted an empirical study. Firstly, a building construction safety risk system including risk sources, work types, management responsibilities, time and space and other associated elements is constructed;secondly, based on the system framework, a meta-network analysis(MNA) model of prefabricated building construction safety risks is constructed;thirdly, probability is imported to construct the BN-MNA model through Bayesian networks(BN), and risk source importance analysis and risk assessment values of risk source nodes are carried out. The result shows that the BN-MNA model can realize the integration and precision of safety risk assessment and control of prefabricated building construction, and provides a realistic basis for safety risk control through key risk probability derivations.