“一带一路”沿线国家财政政策与碳排放的关系研究

The Nexus between Fiscal Policy and Carbon Emissions:Empirical Evidence from Belt and Road Initiative Countries

人类活动产生的温室气体排放是全球气候变化的主要原因。中国提出的“一带一路”倡议为发展中国家带来广阔的经济发展机遇的同时,也对各国妥善处理好经济发展与环境保护的平衡提出了挑战。因此,财政政策工具是应对气候变化的关键。本文探讨了财政政策工具(政府支出&税收收入)、外国直接投资、能源消费、经济增长对“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放的影响。本文使用动态普通最小二乘法(DOLS)和完全修正的普通最小二乘法(FMOLS)评估各国和全体范围内相关变量间的长期关联,也使用了成对Dumitrescu和Hurlin的因果关系检验考察变量间的短期因果关系。研究结果证明,政府支出与碳排放呈显著的长期正向关系,税收收入与碳排放呈显著的长期负向关系,而外国直接投资、GDP增长显著加剧了碳排放。短期异质性因果关系支持了财政政策工具和碳排放之间的双向因果关系。最后,本文提出通过财政政策工具调节“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放的建议。

The greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activities are the leading cause of global climate change.China’s Belt and Road initiative has not only brought developing countries many economic development opportunities,but also challenges about how to keep the balance between economic development and environmental protection.This study explores the impact of fiscal policy instruments(government expenditure&tax revenues),FDI,energy consumption,and GDP on climate change in Belt and Road Initiative countries.The study uses dynamic ordinary least squares(DOLS)and fully modified ordinary least squares(FMOLS)to estimate the long-run results in the full panel and individual countries.Furthermore,Pairwise Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s causality test has been used to observe the short-run causalities among variables.The findings confirmed that government expenditures has a significant long-run positive relationship with carbon emissions,tax revenue has a significant longrun negative relationship with carbon emissions,and foreign direct investment,GDP growth significantly exacerbates carbon emissions.The short-run heterogeneous causality endorses bidirectional causality between fiscal policy instruments and carbon emissions.Finally,this study proposes to regulate carbon emissions in countries along the Belt and Road through fiscal policy instruments.