人口结构转变与制造业产业结构调整——基于跨国面板数据的研究

Demographic Transition and Transformation of Manufacturing Industry Structure:Research Based on Cross-country Panel Data

人口老龄化和制造业转型升级是当前中国经济发展面临的重要课题。本文运用1963-2007年150个国家和地区的跨国面板数据分析了人口结构转变对制造业结构调整的影响。结果表明,老年抚养比上升通过减少劳动力数量比重、抑制资本形成和人力资本积累以及增加养老负担,阻碍了制造业结构升级,也通过倒逼企业增加研发投入以应对劳动力短缺,促进了制造业结构升级;少儿抚养比下降通过增加劳动力数量、促进资本形成和提高人力资本积累水平,促进了制造业结构升级。此外,人口结构转变导致的制造业结构调整效应在不同发展程度的国家存在异质性,老年抚养比上升的促进作用在发展程度较高国家更显著,而少儿抚养比下降的促进作用在发展程度较低国家更显著。

The aging of the population and the transformation of the manufacturing industry are important issues facing China’s economic development.This paper studies the effect of population aging on the manufacturing industry transformation using the cross-country panel data of 150 countries and regions from 1963 to 2007.The results show that the increase of the old dependency ratio hinders the structural upgrading of the manufacturing industry by reducing the proportion of the labor force,inhibiting the formation of capital and the accumulation of human capital;and population aging also promotes the industrial structural upgrading by forcing companies to increase R&D investment in case of the shortage of labor force in the future.The decline in the child dependency ratio promotes the structural upgrading of the manufacturing industry by increasing the number of labor,promoting capital formation and improving the level of human capital accumulation.In addition,the effect of demographic transition on the manufacturing structure change is heterogeneous across countries with different development levels.The positive effect of the increase in the oldage dependency ratio is more significant in the countries with higher development levels,while the positive effect of the decline in the child dependency ratio is more significant in countries with lower levels of development.