行业周期视角下房地产股债投资策略

The Industrial Cycle and Real Estate Equity and Debt Investment

房地产行业发展与股债投资正成为当前金融市场关注的焦点。本文从行业周期视角出发,梳理次贷危机以来房地产行业运行的规律与特征,分析房地产行业基本面、政策面与股债价格轮动之间的关系。研究发现,房地产政策导向、行业流动性、信用违约对于房地产股债价格波动具有较强的前瞻性和解释力,本文基于此提出适用于当前市场的房地产股债投资范式与投资策略。

The development of the real estate sector and its links to the stock and bond markets have been a focus of financial market attention. This paper examines the characteristics of the real estate sector from the perspective of the industrial cycle since the subprime crisis. It analyzes the relationship between real estate industry fundamentals and government policies on one hand and stock and bond price rotation on the other. It also concludes that real estate policy guidance, industry liquidity, and credit defaults have strong forwardlooking and explanatory power for real estate stock and bond price fluctuations. This paper proposes a real estate stock and bond investment paradigm and investment strategy applicable to the current market.