南瓜实蝇在中国的潜在地理分布研究

Study on the potential distribution of Zeugodacus depressus(Shiraki)in China

南瓜实蝇[Zeugodacus depressus(Shiraki)]是一种重要的检疫性有害生物,主要为害葫芦科和茄科等作物。根据南瓜实蝇的最新分布数据,利用MaxEnt模型结合ArcGIS软件预测其在我国的潜在地理分布,并分析相关环境因子的贡献率。结果显示:黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、天津、山东、山西、陕西、甘肃、西藏、内蒙古、河北、北京、河南、浙江、江苏、福建、安徽、湖北、江西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、广西、广东、台湾等省(直辖市、自治区)存在南瓜实蝇的适生区。影响南瓜实蝇分布的主要气候因素为最热月的最高温,贡献率最高,为40.9%。研究结果可为南瓜实蝇在我国的发生提供早期预警,为有效防控提供理论依据。

The Pumpkin fruit fly,Zeugodacus depressus(Shiraki),is an important quarantine pest that damages Cucurbitaceae and Solanaceae.We used the MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS to predict its potential geographic distribution in China and analyzed the contribution rates of 19 bioclimatic data according to the latest distribution of Z.depressus.The results showed that Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning,Tianjin,Shandong,Shanxi,Shaanxi,Gansu,Tibet,Inner Mongolia,Hebei,Beijing,Henan,Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Fujian,Anhui,Hubei,Jiangxi,Chongqing,Sichuan,Guizhou,Yunnan,Guangxi,Guangdong,Taiwan,and other provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)all had suitable areas for Z.depressus.The main climatic factor affecting the distribution of Z.depressus is the highest temperature in the hottest month,with the highest contribution rate of 40.9%.The results can provide a theoretical basis for early warning and effective prevention and control of the occurrence of Z.depressus in China.