FPSO系统火灾风险因素综合评价方法及应用

Comprehensive evaluation method and application of fire risk factors of FPSO system

采用基于结构熵权和多属性理想现实比较分析的方法对浮式生产储油(FPSO)系统的火灾风险进行定性和定量分析。利用改进的结构熵权法对评估指标进行赋权,通过计算火灾风险因素实际评判矩阵与理想评判矩阵间的偏差度对其排序,以识别影响系统安全的关键火灾风险因素;通过与多准则妥协解排序法、逼近理想解排序法等方法的计算结果进行对比,验证该方法的合理性和优越性。结果表明,油气处理及储存区电气故障、特定危险区域误操作、特定危险区域明火、油气处理及储存区域碰撞或摩擦火花、油气处理及储存区明火是重要程度较高的5个火灾风险因素。

To scientifically evaluate the fire risk of FPSO,a risk assessment method based on structural entropy weight and MAIRCA method was applied.This method can be used to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze the fire risk of FPSO.Firstly,according to the structure entropy weight method,a typical ranking table is established for the occurrence degree,severity,and detection degree in the FMEA evaluation.And the ranking estimation of the importance of the indicators is obtained by different experts.Secondly,the entropy theory is used to make a quantitative analysis of the ranking estimation.The entropy value and‘blindness’were calculated,and the‘literacy’treatment was carried out to deal with the potential deviation.Finally,the normalized index weight is formed.In addition,MAIRCA method is used to establish the actual evaluation matrix and ideal evaluation matrix according to the weight calculation results of evaluation indexes and experts’evaluation of each failure mode.The deviation degree between the actual judgment matrix and the ideal judgment matrix of each fire risk factor is calculated.Then the fire risk factors are sorted according to the ascending order of the deviation degree calculated by each fire risk factor.The ranking is the importance ranking of the fire risk factors,and the key fire risk factors that affect the system security can be identified according to the ranking.The rationality and superiority of the proposed method are verified by comparing the results with the results calculated by VIKOR and TOPSIS.The calculation results show that electrical fault in the oil and gas production and storage area,misoperation in the specific hazardous area,open fire in the specific hazardous area,collision or friction spark in an oil and gas treatment and storage area,open fire in oil and gas production and storage area are five important fire risk factors,which should be paid more attention to and prevented in production work,and provide decision basis for managers to control key risks.