基于AHP的多式联运网络节点安全评价

Safety assessment of multimodal transport network nodes based on AHP

为了精准定位多式联运网络安全隐患,制定合理有效的安全保障措施,从网络节点角度着手,用节点脆弱性来间接反映其安全程度,来对多式联运网络安全评价问题进行研究。首先根据节点度等指标,确定节点重要度计算方法;其次,通过层次分析法(AHP)确定了运输线路对节点安全水平影响的量化计算公式,进而构建了多式联运网络节点安全评价模型。为验证评价方法的有效性,以四川省、重庆市及湖北省为研究对象,根据其实际货运情况绘制多式联运网络图,并通过MATLAB软件对各节点的脆弱性进行量化计算。结果表明,重庆市的脆弱度最高,即安全性最低,其次为成都市、武汉市等,神农架林区的安全水平最高。因此在实际运输工作中,加强网络中大型枢纽节点的安全管理工作,密切关注连接边多为公路运输线路的节点运行状况,对于多式联运网络安全运营具有极大促进效用。

To accurately identify the hidden dangers of multimodal transport networks and formulate more reasonable and effective safety management measures, this article focused on network nodes and comprehensively considered the number of connections lines at each node and the influence weight of each kind of transportation route to further analyze the safety degree of nodes and establish a node safety assessment model of multimodal transport networks. First of all, this article determined the calculation method of node importance according to the node degree and other indicators. Second, the influence weight corresponding to each transportation mode was calculated through the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) by considering the differences of the four transportation modes of road, railway, waterway, and aviation. Then this article analyzed the distribution of various transportation routes in the multimodal transport network, and obtained the proportions of the transportation routes corresponding to the four transportation modes, and then determined the formula for calculating the influence value of transportation routes. Next, this article integrated two indicators of node importance and the influence of transportation routes and established a multimodal transport network node security assessment model. To verify the effectiveness of the assessment method, this article counted the highway, railway, waterway, and air freight routes between 39 cities in Sichuan Province, Chongqing City, and Hubei Province, and draw a multimodal transport network diagram with AutoCAD software. The road transportation routes were mainly determined based on the expressway network between cities. The railway transportation routes were extracted from the China Railway Freight Business Route Name List. The waterway transportation routes were determined based on the inland waterways between the three provinces and cities, namely the Jialing River, Han River and Yangtze River routes. Air transportation routes were determined according to the airport construction and route traffic conditions in each city. Then this article used MATLAB software to calculate the importance of each node and the influence value of transportation routes and obtained the vulnerability of each node in the multimodal transport network. The solution results show that Chongqing has the lowest safety, which is located at the center of the multimodal transport network and is more connected to road transportation routes, followed by Chengdu and Wuhan. Shennongjia has the highest safety which is located at the edge of the network and has very few connections. Therefore, strengthening the safety management of large-scale hub nodes in the network, and effectively control the hidden dangers in the transportation process will greatly promote the normal operation of the multimodal transport network in actual transportation work. This article considers the influence of the distribution of transportation routes on the safety of multimodal transport network nodes for the first time, proposes a new safety assessment method, and verifies the effectiveness of the method through a specific example.