考虑元件参数不确定性的高压直流输电系统可靠性区间评估

Reliability Interval Assessment of HVDC Transmission System Considering Component Parameter Uncertainty

为了评估元件参数不确定性对高压直流(high voltage direct current,HVDC)输电系统可靠性的影响,提出了基于仿射算术(affine arithmetic,AA)的HVDC输电系统可靠性区间评估方法。首先用区间形式刻画元件可靠性参数的不确定性,建立了HVDC输电系统可靠性指标的区间算术表达式模型以及可靠性区间评估模型;然后鉴于区间运算存在过于保守的问题,将仿射算术引入可靠性区间评估;最后通过对一个双12脉波接线的HVDC输电系统进行分析,证明了所提方法可以有效刻画元件参数不确定性对HVDC输电系统可靠性评估的影响,同时还能高效地辨识系统的薄弱元件。

In order to evaluate the influence of component parameter uncertainty on the reliability of HVDC transmission system,this paper presents a reliability interval evaluation method for HVDC transmission system based on affine arithmetic(AA).Firstly,the interval form is used to describe the uncertainty of component reliability parameters,an interval algorithm expression and a reliability interval evaluation model of the HVDC system reliability indices are established.Then,considering that the result of interval arithmetic is too conservative,AA is introduced into the reliability evaluation of HVDC transmission system.Finally,through the analysis of double 12 pulse HVDC transmission system,it is proved that the proposed method can effectively describe the influence of component parameter uncertainty on the reliability evaluation of HVDC transmission system,which can provide a better reference for practical engineering,the weak components of the system can be identified efficiently.