财税政策稳增长的跨周期和逆周期视角

On the Fiscal and Tax Policies for Stabilizing Growth from the Cross-cyclical and Counter-cyclical Perspectives

实现跨周期和逆周期调节有机结合,是“十四五”时期财税政策的重要方向。跨周期和逆周期政策设计的理论基础是经济周期理论。比较分析经济周期理论,得出跨周期政策的主要驱动力是创新与重大技术进步、基础设施与房地产,逆周期政策的主要驱动力是存货、投资、信贷、利率、就业等。通过分析我国长期以来的财政支出顺周期状况,结合二十一世纪的经济周期特征和新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来的宏观形势动态,可以探讨跨周期与逆周期财税政策基本组合和当前重点。在中美周期错位的情况下,我国财税政策必须面对国内经济和美国实体经济扩张与宏观政策紧缩溢出的挑战,以及俄乌冲突、美联储加息给国内经济带来“二次探底”的可能。为此,需要集中释放跨周期政策,加大逆周期政策力度,加大对受疫情和防疫影响较大行业和群体的临时性救助。

To realize the effective combination of cross-cycle and counter-cycle regulations is an important direction of the fiscal and tax policies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The business cycle theory is the theoretical basis of cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical policy designs.By comparing and analyzing the business cycle theory,this paper argues that the main driving forces of cross-cyclical policies include innovation and technological progress,infrastructure and real estate,and those of counter-cyclical policies include inventory,investment,credit,interest rate and employment.By analyzing the pro-cyclical facts of fiscal expenditure in China,combined with the cyclic features of the 21st century and the macroeconomic situations since the outbreak of COVID-19,the paper concludes the basic combination and current focus of cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical fiscal and tax policies.In case of China-US business cycle mismatch,and under the possibility of "double dip" brought by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US Fed liquidity tightening,China’s fiscal and tax policies should face the challenges of domestic economy and the spillovers of US real expansion and policy tightening.Now,it is necessary to intensively release cross-cyclical policies,strengthen counter-cyclical policies,and increase temporary assistance to the industries and groups heavily affected by the epidemic and epidemic prevention.