四川盆地中部区域性暴雨可预报性分析

Predictability analysis of regional rainstorm in central Sichuan basin

文章利用EC数值预报产品、高空观测和地面自动气象站资料,从短期天气预报的角度,对2018-07-03四川盆地中部的1次区域性暴雨进行可预报性分析研究。结果表明:EC数值模式的24 h降水预报、高空形势预报较实况有明显偏西,未能预报出此次过程的中尺度急流;3 h降水预报以及垂直运动有明显的滞后性,并且强度显著偏弱,湿度场以及热力条件具有较高的可预报性,有利于预警预报向东调整。

Based on EC numerical forecast products,high altitude observation and ground automatic weather station data,the predictability of a regional rainstorm in central Sichuan basin on July 3,2018 was analyzed from the perspective of short-term weather forecast.The results show that the 24-hour precipitation forecast and upper air situation forecast of EC numerical model are obviously to the west and the mesoscale jet cannot be predicted.The 3-hour precipitation forecast and vertical velocity have obvious lag,and the intensity is significantly weaker.The humidity field and thermal conditions are highly predictable,which is conducive to the adjustment of early warning forecast to the east.