桦川县水资源供需平衡预测分析

Forecast and analysis of water resources supply and demand balance in Huachuan County

桦川县地处黑龙江省粮食主产区,水资源供需平衡对地区社会经济发展至关重要。为探究桦川县水资源状况和合理利用水资源的方式方法,以2020年为现状年,对2025年和2030年的水资源供需状况进行预测分析。预测结果显示,在两次供需平衡分析中,当P=50%时,除2030年水资源量供大于需外,其他近、远期规划年份在不同情况和保证率下均不能满足需水量。故应在严格执行“三条红线”的前提下,提高农田灌溉水利用率,坚持开源节流,供需两端共同发力来促进地区水资源的可持续利用。

Huachuan County is located in the main grain producing area of Heilongjiang Province,and the balance between supply and demand of water resources is very important to the regional social and economic development.In order to explore the situation of water resources in Huachuan County and research how to make rational use of water resources,the supply and demand of water resources in 2025 and 2030 were predicted and analyzed with 2020 as the current year.The forecast results show that,when P=50%in the two analysis of supply and demand balance,except that the supply of water resources exceeds demand in 2030,other short-term and long-term planning years can’t meet the water demand under different conditions and guarantee rates.Therefore,under the strict implementation of the“three red lines”,we should improve the utilization rate of farmland irrigation water,persist in increasing revenue and reducing expenditure,and make joint efforts between supply and demand to promote the sustainable utilization of regional water resources.