基于Mann-Kendall与DFA的大伙房水库径流特性分析

Analysis of runoff characteristics of Dahuofang Reservoir based on Mann-Kendall and DFA

为深入研究大伙房水库流域时间序列年径流量的变化规律,加强对流域水资源的合理规划利用和度汛防洪工作,基于大伙房水库1959—2021年反推入库径流数据,采用Mann-Kendall和DFA方法对反推入库径流序列进行分析。结果表明:大伙房水库反推入库径流序列具有长程相关性,全年、汛期、主汛期的径流量呈不显著的减少趋势,并在下一个3~4年的区间尺度上呈减少的趋势可能性较大;主汛期的径流分配比呈显著减少趋势,汛期径流分配的不均匀程度有所缓解;主汛期在下一个3~4年的区间尺度上有延后的趋势,建议将主汛期重新划分为7月中旬至9月上旬。

In order to deeply study the variation law of annual runoff in time series of Dahuofang Reservoir basin,strengthen the rational planning and utilization of water resources in the basin and flood control during flood season,Mann-Kendall and DFA methods were used to analyze the backward inflow runoff series based on the backward inflow runoff data of Dahuofang Reservoir from 1959 to 2021.The results show that:the backward inflow runoff series of Dahuofang Reservoir has a long-range correlation,and the runoff in the whole year,flood season and main flood season shows an insignificant decreasing trend,and it is more likely that it will decrease in the next 3 to 4 years interval scale;The runoff distribution ratio in the main flood season showed a significant decreasing trend,and the uneven degree of runoff distribution in the flood season was relieved;The main flood season tends to be delayed in the next 3 to 4 years.It is suggested that the main flood season should be re-divided into mid-July and early September.